WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS AREA OF KENTUCKY...
WILL BE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH WHERE BEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS. OVERNIGHT MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE TO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IN PARTICULAR...THE 06Z NAM
RUNS SHOW A NICE 50KT 850HPA JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATER
TONIGHT. 850HPA ISOTHERMS GET VERY PACKED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF OUR CWA WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTIVE OF HEAVY
BANDED PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT...STRONG ADIABATIC COOLING IS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION RIDING UP INTO THE
REGION. THEREFORE...THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT A BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE INDIANA
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS. ITS VERY DIFFICULT TO
TELL IF THIS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LEXINGTON METRO
AREA...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST IT WOULD BE NORTH OF
LEXINGTON AT THE MOMENT. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS...THE ADVISORY AREA OVER KENTUCKY WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAINLY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS. FEEL THAT 2-4 OR PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
FURTHER WEST...ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...LATEST 06Z NAM AND 12Z NAM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THIS AREA AND EXTENDING SEWD INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW AT ONSET TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SLEET/SNOW THEN SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FEEL THAT A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IS VERY LIKELY FROM JASPER INDIANA SEWD THROUGH E-TOWN
AND THEN SEWD TOWARD LIBERTY KY. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION. SOME
ISOLATED ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 0.50. THEREFORE...THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN IN A WINTER STORM WARNING...DUE TO THE MIX OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...THE SITUATION IS MORE COMPLEX. FIRST OF
ALL..THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND GFS RUNS WERE TOO COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NE ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
NEAR OR AT FREEZING IN EAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE.
THUS...GIVEN THE WARMER MODEL TRENDS...AND THAT THE WARMER AIR IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...EFFECTIVELY CHANGING THE WINTERY MIX
OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. AT THIS TIME...WE ALONG WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST DOWN
THERE AT THIS TIME...AS WE WOULD LIKE TO LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF
12Z DATA. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO WORKING FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS HAVE
FORECAST. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN THAT THE MODELS TYPICALLY
ARE TOO SLOW IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN DURING SW FLOW AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC EVENTS. THUS WILL BE INCREASING POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR SW SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS
EVENING. WILL COVER THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION.
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