Friday, December 31, 2010

Heavy rain/t-storms for tonight then typically January pattern next week

Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 60's. 66 with a gusty south wind at  25-30mph. Rain/t-storms this evening for New Years fest. Temperatures will drop from 54 into the 30's New Years Day. A flurry or two not rule out. Highs in the mid 30's for Sunday. Monday thru Wednesday temperatures in the low 40's for highs. Low in the 20's. Wednesday night Thursday a chance of snow. Here is the Canadain showing that opportunity for next Thursday and again next Friday night- Saturday.


Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Mid week storm next week to watch

We actually have a couple of chances of snow from Wednesday night- Thursday of next week then next weekend. One at a time. Models are all over. Yesterday had it coming Tuesday night Wednesday. Timing is an issue and amount of cold air is too. It has some potential. So here is the gfs valid next Wednesday. There is moisture from SW working it.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Rain tomorrow night- Thursday and Friday night- Saturday

Several rain chances over next 4 days then colder air comes late New Years Day. Flurries/light snow not rule out.Sunday highs in the mid 30's. Highs in the around 40 Monday and Tuesday. All the models are trying to develop a storm for mid week of next week coming from the west and SW. It looks to be snow Tuesday night into Wednesday right now. We have to keep an eye on this storm to see what will happen.

Colder than normal January is in store for us

No January thaw is expected. We have a great chance of seeing a huge snowstorm here in the month January. Check out my winter forecast archives. I looked at the years where we have seen a white christmas or snowfall on Christmas during a.  La'Nina years of 1999,1970, 2000, 1995, 1975. January was normal or colder than normal. 1989 was the only year. That was the coldest December ever. January 1990 was very warm. No changes on my forecast tomorrow night rain here and freezing NNE of the city but it will change to all rain Thursday. Friday a few showers. Highs near 60. Saturday heavy rain. High near 60 then turning colder Saturday night into Sunday am with snow showers possible Saturday overnight and Sunday early.NOGAP model still unchanged. Euro has snow showers Saturday evening/ Canadian has\light snow early Sunday am.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Warm and unsettled later this week then colder weather returns

Rain chances on the increase Wednesday night- Thursday. Areas NNE of Louisville could see wintry preciptation but that will change to rain Thursday. Highs in the 40's Thursday. Near 60 Friday and Saturday with showers chance New Years Eve but New Years heavy rain as a approaching front comes near. Look at the time frame of the NOGAPS Saturday and Sunday am. It's possible this could end as snow Saturday night- Sunday am. Other models doesn't suggest this but I want to show this models. I believe this is possible.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Snow total thru Christmas Day and where we go from here

Look at how I did with my snowfall forecast with this storm. We did saw some 3-5 ranges but the south bands developed further south than I expect in Kentucky.

Actual                                     Forecast
St. Louis 3"                               3-5"
Louisville 1.5                             3-5"
Indinapolis 2"                            3-5"
Nasville2"                                 2-3
Cincy 1"                                   2-3

Now on to this week. We will have a warmer week. Monday and Tuesday will see temperatures in the 30's. Wednesday near 40. We have to watch out for ice Wednesday night around here and Thursday am further NE then change to rain as temperature warm. Occasional showers throughout the day Thursday. Friday breezy and warm. Highs reaching around 60. Look at the Canadian model below for Saturday. Saturday heavy rain and it has a low pressure across our area changing rain to snow showers Saturday night. This is certainly possible. We will watch this throughout the week but has several inches on the backside Saturday night

Long ranger.... Late next week a rain/snow system to watch for. GFS has rain to snow. This is for next Thursday evening Jan 6, 2011.

As for January. My winter forecast speaks for itself. I'm expecting a colder/stormier than normal month. The years we have saw a white christmas or snowfall during an La'nina winter. Long range models are agreeing as well. There more storms after this to track.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Merry white Christmas

Merry chrisrtmas to all family, friends, and to all. Thank you for stopping by. Later I will give you an update on snow totals. Heaviest fall south of the Ohio river. Snows from last night is over. We will see snow showers this afteroon and this evening. More more for your Sunday. Total additional accumulations 1-2 today thru Monday. A chance of seeing wintry mix Tuesday night- Wednesday with the leftover cold then chance of rain Wednesday. We will see a huge warming up toward New Years. Highs in the 50's and 60's. Heavy rain/t-storms looks good with a big storm. More on that on future update.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Final call on snowfall amounts thru Christmas Day and again Sunday

No changes here on snowfall. Everything remains after looking at the midday runs and radar. Heavier bands should setup Louisville and along 1-64 to West and SW Indiana. 3-5" of snow with local amounts seeing 6"thru Christmas Day. Radar indicates snow in St. Louis and Evansville. I'm expecting snow to start 5pm or  little after and becoming heavy late evening and thru early Chrsitmas Day am. Low 29 tonight. High 31 Chrirstmas Day. Lighter snows for the rest of the day then more snows develop Saturday night thru Sunday with additional 1-2" of snowfall across the area. Total accumualtion 4-7 of snow thru Monday early am.

Snow and Blowing snows this weekend. Winter weather advisories

                                   Winter weather advisory are in effective

Snow will start this evening and last through the morning Saturday then snow showers will continue the afternoon and evening. Second snowfall forecast looks pretty good so far. We have to watch where the heavy snow bands setup tonight. We really want know that until the time. One more run then a final call will come out later on today but 3-5 of snow thru Chrsitmas Day will from along -I-64 and north thru Kentucky. 2-3 in Bowling Green, 2-3 Paducah. Down to  Nashville, TN 2". Use extreme caution out there tonight.

Widespread 1-2 of snows will fall Sunday- Monday am. Blowing snows and low visblity at times through the day.  A closed upper low will be over Ohio Valley and lake enhance snow will work together to bring snow.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

I decided to make a 2nd call on snowfall earlier thru Sunday am

Alot of people are traveling tomorrow so this is what I see it right now. We still have 3-4 runs before the event here. Final call will be tomorrow sometime but here are the following cities and snowfall forecast thru Sunday am

Des moines 4-6"
St. Louis 3-5"
Cincy 2-3
Evansville 3-5
Indianpolis 3-5"
Springfield, IL 3-5"
Kansas City 1-2"

Our local area
Louisville and along 1-64E 3-5"
Eastern and SE KY 3-5"
SW Kentucly 1 or less
rest of Kentucky 2-3"

Note we will have addtional snowfall Sunday- Monday am 1"  to as much as up to 2"

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

First call on snowfall amounts on our Christmas winter storm

Latest nam precipitation has increase qpf now to over.25" thru Sunday am. First snowfall forecast is for 3-5" of snow across most of Kentucky, Tennessee, South central Indiana includes Indianapolis, Southern Ohio including Cincy . I believe areas right over Evansville, IN and St.Louis has a chance to see 4-6" of snow. My second call comes early Friday am then my final call Friday afternoon before the snow Lord's will. Snow will start in the evening sometime and see moderate to heavy snow overnight. Snow will continue thru Christmas Day. We will have another opportunity of snow showers Sunday- Monday am with additional accumulations from Lake enhancement. Areas that see heaviest snow showers will see additional 1-2 of snow.

HPC has put us in a slight risk of 4" or more of snow

Wow! Look at the hpc. It has most of Kentucky and Middle and East Tennessee under this risk. I still believe at this time we looking at a 2-3" of snow if this trend ccontinue we could see up to 3-5" of snow thru Christmas Day. Latest 18Z data is hot of the press. Qpf amounts are increasing. Look below. Will this trend contune. Additional accumulations will occur throughout the weekend. Highs Christmas Eve 32 and Christmas Day  near or 30. So it will be cold enough to support snow this time.

Northern jet stream will cut off this weekend to bring decent snows to Ohio Valley

Here is the gfs ensemble are currently indicating bringing us decent snow Christmas eve evening - Christmas Day am. Snows 2-3" projected of snow and brings over .25" of snow thru Monday. We will see a nice lake enhance snows from the Great Lakes Saturday night- Sunday am. European model most notably shows this nicely. Snow ratios will be high. Areas that see heavy snows burst will see a quick 1" of snow. More Sunday afternoon/ evening into Monday am as well.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

How much snow will see with this Christmas storm???????

European is way south and draging the SW trough too much but it has the low in Louisiana. Heaviest snow south of here. This looks unlikely too me.

Canadian model has shift south again from this morning. It doing the same thing as the European but it's not dragging the sw trough. It's making the northern stram has dominate feature therefore it still bring us several inches of snow with high rain to snow ratios.

Gfs is better than the two models above but it's still dominate by northern branch feature too. It still has us getting us 3-6".

Timing of this storm is slated to be here Friday late afternoon to start and lasting off and on Christmas Day.

Rain to snow ratios will increase Saturday.

I believe at this time the European doesn't make sense to me but could score the coup. I believe right now as an early guess 2-4 or 3-6 of snow.

The storm is still in the Pacfic ocean. Models will change between now and Friday. Tuned tune.

Thanking for stopping by this evening. Chief  stormtracker Marcus Barnes

Winter storm alert is on

Nam is getting ready to bring heavy snows across the area through the late afternoon evening Christmas eve. It will last through Christmas Day am. At least 3-6 of snow is an estimate with this on. Take a look
Our most snowcover on Christmas Day is 5" back in 2004. It is in real jeapordy. All the other models are in agreement with snow. Euro is the further south and slower. It still bring several inches.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Snow showers/flurries and cold for Wednesday

 Temperatures start out at 33 Wednesday am then slowly fall during the afternoon.  Snow showers/flurries are a good bet across the region. Light accumulation are not ruled out. Latest 0z nam shows this

Look at 84 hour nam it shows heavy snows Kansas City, MO having it's eyes for us in the afternoon Christmas Eve
All snow event is preferred route to go.

light snow this evening 1" of snow will fall to our NE of Louisville

Light snow will move in this evening then change to rain overnight. Snow accumulation tonight will be to our NE of Louisville 1-71. Carrolton and Cincy. More light rain. Tuesday with a high 40. Colder of the rest of the week.

 All models has shifted even further south. European models is slower on it's timing a bit. Brings snow in Kentucky and Tennesee Friday late and Saturday. Here is the model output.

We don't want it to continue to shift south. It would take us out of the heavy snows. It would go in TN instead.

Winter storm alert Christmas Eve- Christmas Day

It's no longer a dream. A White Christmas is a reality but for first before that light snow will developing later today. Best chance of light accumulation is north of here. It will change to rain and that rain will be here for Tuesday afternoon. Colder will be here Tuesday night. Lows around freezing mark. Snow showers or flurries Wednesday with high 33-34 degrees. Lows Thursday am 23-25 degrees. Thursday high 32 mostly cloudy and cold. then area developing winter storm will be slated to arrive Friday midday or Friday afternoon. Heaviest snows will fall Friday evening thru Christmas Day. Highs for Christmas 23. Snow showers and flurries will continue Sunday is well. Highs around 20.

Most models now has start out as snow. Take a look


Sunday, December 19, 2010

White Christmas is in store this year

Highs this week will be in the 30's most of this week. That will go a long way bringin us a white Christmas. We just a storm. We have that storm showing up on the models. We may see a 40 degree day Tuesday. Monday late- Tuesday will see light snow that will change to rain. It could bring light accumulations especially north in Indiana. A major storm we have talked about on this blog will be developing into the Plains states Thursday and will spread east into the Ohio Valley by Friday am and it will bring precipitation in the form of  snow northern part of the state and southern areas mix and SW Kentucky rain it appears now. Temperatures are critical to start but won't be on the latter part of the storm. As the morning and early afternoon wears on we could see a mix or rain  for a time as temperatures will be critical 32 or 33 degrees range before we change to heavy snow in the late afternoon and evening Christmas Eve. Heaviest snow will fall late afternoon thru Christmas night then show showers, wicked cold, wind for the remaining of your Christmas Day. Snowfall amounts could be 6" or more. Here is 6Z model.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Snowstorm Christmas Eve- Christmas Day is on the table

Here is the 12Z European model Christmas Day morning. It has short wave trough digging in and surface low to the south into Carolinas. Wow!
Monday am there is a slight chance of flurries then more snow in the evening changing to rain. Tuesday will be rain even though the low will south. Too much warm advection. Highs in the upper 30's. Tuesday will be the warmest of the week. Here is the European valid Tuesday am


Two storms to track over the next 7 days to bring a white chritsmas

Monday night- Tuesday. It has snow to rain back to snow but still tracks it south into Tennessee Valley. Temperatures are borderline. Here is the Canadian Tuesday afternoon. Temps dropping back to freezzing.

Another storm Christmas Eve will be a bigger storm that will shift  further south whith time in my opinion It shows snow showers and flurries for Christmas Day. Here what the gfs ensembles shows.


Friday, December 17, 2010

Continue cold and with still chances of snow Monday thru Tuesday

I like the track for Tuesday across the Mid-south. Here is the 12z Canadian valid Tuesday am. It's all snow here. Low is in Arkansas. Also to keep in mind we now may see a band of light snow come down from the NW Sunday night- early Monday. Highs Monday and Tuesday looks to be 30.
I love our chances of a white Christmas. Forecast trends for now for Christmas take us into the 20's. It possible we could see teens for highs. Wow! What a cold day that would be here.

LatestUS( gfs) models are an outlier on the track Tuesday

I know most forecast around here will probably bite for a northern track and rain. Right now gfs model is an outlier. Here is another model the European model which I haven't shown also valid Tuesday am. It shows a low south in Arkansas Tuesday am. It brings wintry precipitation no rain.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Our clipper system is on track to bring our next winter storm early next week

Here is latest 18Z dgex model with is extended version of the NAM for next Tuesday am. Look what it shows. Heavy snows for Kentucky with low in Southern Kentucky. With a clipper system you need the low pressure center to track south 100-150 miles from Louisville to bring goods snows here. Typically clipper system brings 2-4 or 3-6 of snow but a very strongclipper can bring us much as 6-8". Clippers are fast moving so that's why it's usually doesn't produce huge amounts of snows. Huge means double digits snows. This clipper system is a potent one so we have to keep close eye on this one.

More snow possible next Monday night- Tuesday

Interesting setup for Monday night- Tuesday. All of these models except for the US models(gfs) are farther south. We will keep track of this in the upcoming days. There is a 99% chance of a white xmas.



 Gfs is the further north of it's track compare to the other models below. It's has rain here.
                        Canadian model has the low in Tenneessee Tuesday am. Snow here.

                            6Z dgex model has low KY/TN border Tuesday am. Snow here
                        Ukmet has low further south than our US generarted models.

We didn't get the snow here in Louisville

Tempertures this morning is around 30 degrees in town as I write 5:58am. Freezing rain out there. North toward Carrolton, KY which is 25 miles NNE of Louisville, KY has 4" of snow. So the change would be for Louisville to stay ice and snow of 5-8" to extreme N.KY, SE IN. Rain is reported in Bowling Green.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Snow/ice across Kentucky will start to explode overnight

Things is starting to moisten up a littlle bit. The 0Z NAM model is slightly colder but not as impressive on the amounts but still a significant storm. I quick hitting storm that will do what it does. We will keep storm on it during the overnight hours. Ongoing forecast reman unchanged. Temperatures will remain steady overnight to 27 then slowly rise a few degrees by morning commute to near 30. We will start to nowcast.

Here is the regional radar

Tracking the snow and ice. Precipiation will be heavy in the morning whatever falls. Click on this.

Changeable forecast

I'm keep a eye on this winter storm. If we see more snow we will be on the high end of snow of 3-6". More sleet low end snow totals. All snow 5-8" of snow. I don't believe  we will see icing. Why? Becauce of  good evaporation cooling which could keep warm air in the upper levels to make it all the way here. Heavy precipiation could keep things from warming up in a hurry to bring icing, the track expecting to go in the Tennessee Valley and the speed of the storm. It's a 12 hours or so.

Winter storm warnings for our area

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY.

* LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
  PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE SNOW MAY
  BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME WARMER AIR
  ALOFT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN THE SNOW CHANGING
  OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS AND THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
  THE AREA BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX TAKE PLACE. ICE
  ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
  AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
  VERY HAZARDOUS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD SIGNIFICANT ICING
  OCCUR...SOME POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

National Weather Service says about this winter storm

WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS AREA OF KENTUCKY...

WILL BE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH WHERE BEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS.  OVERNIGHT MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE TO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  IN PARTICULAR...THE 06Z NAM
RUNS SHOW A NICE 50KT 850HPA JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATER
TONIGHT.  850HPA ISOTHERMS GET VERY PACKED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF OUR CWA WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTIVE OF HEAVY
BANDED PRECIPITATION.  GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT...STRONG ADIABATIC COOLING IS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION RIDING UP INTO THE
REGION.  THEREFORE...THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT A BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE INDIANA
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.  ITS VERY DIFFICULT TO
TELL IF THIS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LEXINGTON METRO
AREA...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST IT WOULD BE NORTH OF
LEXINGTON AT THE MOMENT.  GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS...THE ADVISORY AREA OVER KENTUCKY WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAINLY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS.  FEEL THAT 2-4 OR PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

FURTHER WEST...ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...LATEST 06Z NAM AND 12Z NAM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THIS AREA AND EXTENDING SEWD INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW AT ONSET TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SLEET/SNOW THEN SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.  FEEL THAT A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IS VERY LIKELY FROM JASPER INDIANA SEWD THROUGH E-TOWN
AND THEN SEWD TOWARD LIBERTY KY.  1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION.  SOME
ISOLATED ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 0.50.  THEREFORE...THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN IN A WINTER STORM WARNING...DUE TO THE MIX OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...THE SITUATION IS MORE COMPLEX.  FIRST OF
ALL..THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND GFS RUNS WERE TOO COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NE ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE.  TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
NEAR OR AT FREEZING IN EAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE.
THUS...GIVEN THE WARMER MODEL TRENDS...AND THAT THE WARMER AIR IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...EFFECTIVELY CHANGING THE WINTERY MIX
OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.  AT THIS TIME...WE ALONG WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST DOWN
THERE AT THIS TIME...AS WE WOULD LIKE TO LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF
12Z DATA.  HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.

PRECIPITATION IS ALSO WORKING FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS HAVE
FORECAST.  THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN THAT THE MODELS TYPICALLY
ARE TOO SLOW IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN DURING SW FLOW AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC EVENTS.  THUS WILL BE INCREASING POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR SW SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS
EVENING.  WILL COVER THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION.

Snowfall/ ice storm across Kentucky unchanged at this time

My current forecast calls for snow to start mid to late evening mixing in with sleet throughout the night. Low temperature 27 and will be steady and slowly rise couple degrees to near 30 in the morning. The low will stay in Tennessee so no rain here. Ice to rain just the south of I-64. Ice accumulation .50". Lexington and Louisville along I-64 looks to see 3-6" of snow/sleet. Areas north of I-64 N.KY to Cincy looks to see all snow. 5-8 of snow. Highs tomorrow should stay at 32 here in the city. Precipitation will be lighter throughout the rest of the day and staying cloudy. Precipitation will change back to light snow or flurries midday and the afternoon Thursday.

Latest NAM bringin us significant precipitation

Wow!Look at the latest Nam below. It has us seeing .75> of precipiation. If we see all snow we would see 8" or more along I-64 but looks like sleet would mix in with the snow right now to me. The nam has trended little colder. One of the things interest me is the the fact that the precipitation will be very heavy therefore we would have good evaporational cooling along with the southern track would make a big diffrence on our preciptation type. I don't believe at this point we see a freezing rain. It's a chance it could stay all snow with the track going to Tennessee Valley areas along I-64. Louisville and Lexington but right now I'm going with sleet mixing with the snow thus lower our totals to 3-5" compare to areas N.KY thru Cincy, OH where they will see all snow looks to see 5-8" of snow right now. This is my second call. My final one will be this afternoon.


Tuesday, December 14, 2010

2010-2011 Annual winter forecast

                                2010- 2011 winter forecast isssued November 6, 2010

All you been waiting on. It's our annual winter forecast. This winter willl be normal to slightly below normal overall and snowfall is expected to be above again. Worst of the winter will be Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Midwest. Here is the breakdown on my reasoning behind my support and my forecast temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall total.
         La'Nina will influence our weather this winter. I'm expecting a moderate La'Nina or moderate increasing to strong La'Nina. Either won't matter too much really as far impacts of our weathrer in the Ohio Valley.
              My analogs that comparing this year as follows 2007-2008(Moderate increrasing to strong La'Nina). October saw high temps in 90's just like this year, 2007 summer record hot, fall was record warm, hurricane landfill was similar. November was slightly above normal. The winter 2007-08 was around 20" of snow.
1998-1999( Moderate La'Nina) Halloween was 67, this year the same, September and October dry similar to this one, Summer was wet just like for the most part this summer. 1998-99 saw 20" of snow but it was very warm in November and it was a warm winter.
1970- 1971( Moderate La'Nina) This year was followed by a very cold and snowy winter (1969-1970)( El' Nino). Halloween was 67 degrees just like this year, Fall was warm, 10 or hurricane just like this year. Summer was wet, November was colder than normal the only colder than normal I can find in a moderate or moderate increasing to strong La'Nina. It snowed couple of times both were a dusting or so of .1", .2" of snow. The following winter month had only one month above normal that was December the rest was colder than normal. Total snowfall 20".
Other analogs I looked at 1959. This was a neutrala neutral winter. It saw 34" of snow. It saw 90's twice in October just like this year and drought conditions was around. The following November was colder than normal, it had one month that was warm and that was January, Feburary and March turn around. March 1960 was snowiest and coldestr ever here.
It been two others moderate or moderate increasing to strong La' Nina I can find were it was less snow. 1975-1976, 1999-2000. Both had 3.3", and 12.3". So you can see it really doesn't matter too much whether we see a straight modewate or moderate increasing to strong.
                                                     
                                                        December 2010
    Temperatures -2.0 below normal, precipitation above normal, drought will improved, snowy than normal month. Moderate snowfall event, white xmas is chances are high.
                                                         January 2011
Temperatures -3.0 below normal, precipitation above normal, drought  expected to be gone completely, snowy than normal month, Biggest snowfall of the winter, below zero lows.
                                                          Feburary 2011
 A relaxation in the pattern. A milder than normal pattern. Temperatures +2.0 above normal. Less snows. Above normal precip
                                                        March 2011                                                  
Return to cold again. We have to keep an eye on this month. Snowy than normal month. A moderate snowfall event.

Total snowfall 30" of snow. Temperatures -1.0 below normal overall. Not as cold as last year but quite a bit of big storms and lots of extremes in temperatures.

Models are increasing precipitation amounts

Here is the latest 0Z  NAM model valid Thursday early am. It has the heaviest precipitation along I-64. That will be a wintry mix of precipitation. Blue shaded color indicate .50 or more of precipitation. It will start as snow before switching to wintry mix.




First call on snow/ice accumulations

First call on this winter storm. Areas along I64  looks right now to see 2-4" snow/ sleet. 4-6" of  snow  Cincy, OH. and extreme N.KY. South- SW of I-64 looks to see sleet, frz rain to rain ..... More update later tonight or tomorrow morning.