Lows tonight will be near 40 tonight and highs mid 40's on your New Year Day

Winds will really crank tomorrow afternoon and evening. Temperatures Monday am will be in the 20's and stay there all day. Winds will be even stronger and snow showers will developing as the approach the afternoon hours Monday. We will talk about snow accumulations on our next update. Have fun and be careful tonight.

One more full mild day in the end the year

Highs today upper 50's today. Tonight  lows 50. Highs New Years Day with the front #1 Sunday am with be in the low 50's. A slight chance of showers along with it.Temperatures falling  in the 30's in the evening. Winds will be stronger.Sunday night as Arctic front #2  sweep through. Snow flurries will be possible.  Arctic air will be really notieable Monday with lows in the low to mid 20's. Highs looks to still hold in the mid 20's with gusty northwesterly gusting over 30 mph. Those cold northwesterly winds will produce widespread lake effect snows which moisture from Lake effect will bring widespread snow snowers & flurries half the state. Along I-65 and points east. Snow ratios will be very high so these can dump a quick coating of snow. Snow will be dry and powery. Blowing snows will occur as well. Time frame will be Monday afternoon thru Tuesday am. It will be tough to be outside Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday will be even colder. Here is the latest nam for Monday early evening. We have to watch this over the next few days to snow how much we see can out of this. We rarely see snow from Lake effect moisture here in Louisville. It has been so mild this winter so far and our 1st Arctic blast of the season. It coming straight down to us.

Mild temperatures to finish the year and much colder to start to begin 2012

Highs today and tomorrow in the upper 50's. Winds will pick up this afternoon. Sunny day Saturday then our next arctic blast will be on the move Sunday afternoon dropping our temperatures into the 30's. A few flurries and strong winds behind the front.  Off and on flurries will contine thru Monday. Wind chills single digits.

Latest update on the Arctic blast to start the New Year

Latest update on the latest arctic blast to sweep across the region New Years Day afternoon- Tuesday. Canadian models still has rain to snow Sunday with temperatures falling in the mid 30's by late afternoon with getting stronger and stronger. Temperatures looks to fall in the around 20 by Monday am with strong winds continuing. Windchills will be in the single digits Monday am. Highs Monday will probably be in the mid 20's. Snow flurries will be around and lots of clouds and windy conditions. If we clear out Monday night we could see single digits lows if not we will see teens. Tuesday we will also see high temperatures in the 20's. Temperatures will start to moderate mid to late next week.

Coldest air of the season arrives to start 2012

Mild temperatures will continue today with highs in the mid to upper 50's with southwest winds increasing in the afternoon. A breezy night with lows in the mid to upper 40's. Friday will see highs in the mid to upper 50's again with a few showers around in the afternoon. Colder air moves in the evening. Snow showers will stay north and east of us. New years eve looks pleasant with highs in the low to mid 50's. Clouds will increasing Saturday night into Sunday am rain will develop by mid morning then blast of Arctic air will sweep through the region in the afternoon and behind the surge snow showers and strong winds will have you shivering. Early next temperatures will struggle to get close to freezing mark with wind chills in the upper teens to low 20's across the state. Lows at night around 20. Few flurries are possible especially Monday.

Warmer end of the week; Colder early next week;

Highs today in the low 40's today and highs in the 50's to end the week. New Years Day evening rain looks to be developing then turning colder early next week with a possiblity of some snow Monday. We will watch this in the coming days.

Transitioning to heavy snow around 11am

Ongoing forecast looks good

Snowfall amounts up to 1" some may see 2" Louisville and northern KY
2" Southern Indy & 2" Indy
Temperatures will be in the mid 30's this afternoon. Wet snow will be heavy and come down pretty down this afternoon. Tapering off light snow & flurries this evening

Tonight below freezing low upper 20's so some slick spots developing overnight tonight- Wednesday am.

Latest models has heaviest snow S.IN to Louisville

Latest Japanesse model Tuesday am around 5am has us on edge of snow with 540 thickness just to the west. It will be on the move throughout the morning. Lows tonight 38. Tuesday high temperature will hold steady at 38-39 degrees. That will occur in the morning.

 Latest forecast scenrios we will be watching for on Tuesday

If we get changes to snow 10am Louisville and just south see 1" could see up to 2" of snow
Southern IN 2"
Further south in KY less than 1
Indy 1-2"

If  snow changes over around 1pm  little or no acumulations here in Louisville
Southern IN 1"
Indy 1"

Accumulations will mainly be on the grassy areas on Tuesday. Temperatures will be above freezing throughout the day.

Note if we get deformation zone over river and  and points south then snowfall amounts will be little higher.

Interesting forecast Tuesday!

Rain changing to snow Tuesday mid morning

Good morning. I hope every had a merry christmas. Today's weather will feature increasing clouds thru the afternoon from sw to ne then rain will move after midnight. Temperatures 47-48 degrees. Tonight temperatures will drop in the upper 30's. Rain/snow line will be knocking on our door in the am then rain changing to snow here looks like by 10 am. If that happens then snowfall accumulations will be higher in order of 1-2". 2" if we see deformation zone setting up in Louisville which nam models is indicating on new 12Z run. If we see a later transition the less we snow we get. Later means by 1pm or later. Just less than 1".Temperatures will stay above freezing throughout the day 33-36. Windy condition throughout the afternoon as well. Tuesday night snow shower and flurries will continue as colder air continue to push through and temperatures will dip into the mid 20's so slick spot will develop by Wednesday am. Wednesday will high temperatures in the mid 30's. Stay tuned for the latest forecast on our first measureable snowfall of the season.

First snow accumulation of the season is finally in the forecast on Tuesday as temperatures drop and winds increases

Latest models are now in good agreement that rain arrive tomorrow overnight then by mid morning rain changing to snow. One thing we have to watch out is who will see the heaviest snowfall? Will that band set up in Louisville, east, or southeast of us. There is anyway I can answer that, but  I can say is that all of areas will see snowfall Tuesday ranging near 1-2" across the area. Stay tune for more update on our first snowfall of the season.

Rain changing to snow Tuesday alog with windy condition as the day wears on

I'm hope you folks out there are having a bless day. Most of you are doing last minute shopping. I'm stopping to give you the latest weather update. Latest computer models are giving us hope for snow on Tuesday. I would have like for  the timing of this same system we have been tracking for a week now to have been  for Christmas but it's closer to my birthday December 28. Timing is still leading to an opportunity snow just before my birthday. First before I show the models. Today thru Monday will be dry. Monday overnight rain. No need to talk about this part of forecast. Tuesday there is disagreement among  some of the models on the when we switch to snow. I do believe we will see snow but when we switch to snow is yet to determine.

Here is what the models say for Tuesday when rain change snow:
JMA:  Snow early Tuesday am
EURO: Rain changing to snow mid to late morning
Nam:  light snow Tuesday am
Canadian: rain changing to snow lunchtime
gfs:  An outlyer Rain changing to some snow especially SE KY

Marcus: I think right now studying this. I certain believe we will see rain changing to snow on Tuesday but it's impossible for me to say now when. We will watch over next couple of days.

I noticed most models are phasing this storm and intensfying as it tracks NE through Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Winds will increasing.

Revise 2011-2012 winter forecast

Good morning. I been looking over the forecast for this winter. I don't think now that we will see up to 40"  for the season but we still a chance to see 25'' up to 30" only if we can get neutral to negative nao. So far we have been in a postive nao.That is the biggest reason we haven't seen snowfall yet. As the season matures we will see snowfall that put a smile on our face. We have to be patient. Temperatures won't be as cold as I previously forecast overall this winter. The month's of January and Feburary I still believe it be colder than normal. The eastern/southern US looks to be mild this winter. Today forecast highs will stay in the low 40's with cloudy skies sprinkles/flurries. Saturday will be in mid 40's and Christmas Day and Monday near 50. It will be dry More rain chances Monday even if we get colder enough could end as light snow Tuesday. Most models are hinting this.

No snow for xmas

Sorry folks! No snow for xmas. Temperatures will be too warm for one and the storm will have to phase( northern and southern jet stream. If it were to phase and cold air come together it would be Sunday night into Monday am and best chances even then be just east us. Stay tune As model data on that. Today's weather. Temperatures will be around 50 before heavy rain afternoon and evening hours then it will make a quick exit. We may see a flurry early Friday am. Friday will be dry with sunshine returning. Highs Friday 45.  Saturday will be nice with good amount of sun. Highs in the upper 40's.Christmas Day highs about 50. Monday will be colder.

Latest Euro give some hope for snow for Christmas

Here is euro holding on to idea of snow by Christmas Day am. The question is its right and if it is how much snow we see? Other models has a storm. Canadian model is hangin too much SW energy to me but it has rain changing to snow at night thru Monday am. Gfs has nothing. Japanesse has storm with snow throughout the day. It's too early for details but I do believe we have shot at snow if we have enough cold air. It don't have to be 32 or lower to snow. If it snow hard enough it can stick on the grassy area. I want snow. We don't have to snowstorm in my view. We have watch Saturday night- Christmas Day for snow. Our timing takes us instead of Christmas eve evening more like Christmas eve night thru Christmas Day and another cold surge Christmas night to bring light snow or flurries. Little slower on timing than morning update . We will fine tuned forecast as get more data. We are still 5 days out.

Active pattern this week; Still a chance of snow Christmas Eve another Christmas Day night

Today highs should get into the 50's. Rain will move after 11am today and early afternoon. More heavier rain overnight into Wednesday am. Highs Wednesday also now will be close to 60 or at 60. Cooler air moves in later in the day then our attention will be on our next storm Thursday. It will move heavy rain from the SW with a low. Highs will be in the 40's Friday will we see a break in the precipitation. Another low pressure from the western gulf will track east-northeastern will affect our area Christmas Eve.  With east winds and low pressure tracking into GA Saturday night it will bring an opportunity for snow. Highs in the 40's. Temperatures looks borderline as always for snow. Another opportunity for snow Christmas night with another low from the NW.

Will we have a white xmas?

Good morning. This is xmas week. Lot of people will planning vacation. So lets discuss the latest forecast. Today we see lots of clouds with highs low 50's a few sprinkles possible. Lows tonight in the upper 40's. Most of tomorrow will be dry. Later in the day and night heavy rain will arrive. High making a run at 60. Last 60 for while. Most of the rain will out of here Wednesday with highs in the mid 50's. A storm from the SW Thursday will spread more rain. Highs near 50. Friday we have to watch our next approaching shot of cold air and low pressure to affect the area. Friday is looking ok. Highs in the 40's. It's Friday thru Christmas Eve that could be interesting. Models are trying to develop a storm but there are diffrence. It's too early to tell on details so stay tuned as get more data. The weekend looks colder. Highs in the 30's.

Nice weekend on tap

We need a few light/snow south Louisville and points south and east. Highs 40 today. Some places may only see upper 30's. The weekend looking good. Highs Saturday in the 40's and back into the 50's Sunday. The return of 60's early next week yet again. Breezy condition Monday. Monday night and Tuesday heavy rain/t-storms. Wednesday precipitation rain could end as few flakes with windy condition. Highs in the 40's with falling temperatures. The end of week will be even colder. An interesting storm system to end the week will bring more precipitation. It could starts out as rain changing to snow as enough colder air moves in. Winds increasing. This will be a fun storm to track. Here is Canadian model says for next Friday PM- thru Christmas Eve am. Hello!

Showers/wind this morning; Few more showers Friday; Tricky storm middle of next week

Today temperatures will be in the low to 60's mid. Front will stalled tonight and Friday to our south. We will have overrunning moisture over top. It will bring us a cold light rain along river and points south. Highs around 40. The weekend looking good highs in the 40's to around 50 Sunday. Monday our next cold front and low pressure will start impact the area. It will impact us further as we get into the middle of next week. We will see more rain then if  we see enough cold air we could end as light snow Wednesday. Canadian model agree.

Over the last few days I have been tracking the models trying to develop a phasing storm by xmas eve. Euro had it couple of days and now here is this canadian model is showing something similar. If this run has low further west it would be a monster storm for Ohio Valley. Gfs model has a storm but it's rain. If we have some cold air to work we have a good shot of a white xmas again this year if this is right.

Warmest day of the month today; We could see a white xmas again this year

Highs in the upper 60's today. 70 not ruled out in some places. Heavy rain/storms with 60 temperatures by Thursday am. Temperatures not warming much tomorrow. Slight chance of a few showers mainly south Friday. Highs in the 40's. 40's will continue Saturday. Sunday- Monday highs returning in the 50's before more rain early next week. Cooler temperatures return for mid week. Late next week we could see much colder air and our precipitation. If we can get much colder air Christmas weekend there will be good chance of a white christmas. Models are hinting snow next weekend. More on this as we get closer and look at more data.

Added a chance of a few showers and lower temperatures today

Good morning. A cloudy day with highs around 50. A chance of showers especially 65 and to the west. Little more more sun later tomorrow with highs in the mid 60's. Winds will increasing late. Rain/t-storms moves for Thursday am. Highs in the 60's. A front will stalled out the south and we may see some overunning showers Friday. Highs in the 40's. 40's for highs will end the week. More more rain for early next week. More on that as the week wears on.

Highs in the 50's and 60's this week; Rain/t-storms chances Thursday

Good Monday morning. A great start to the week. Temperatures will be warmer each day thru mid week. Highs will reach 50 today.Even warmer Tuesday with highs mid to upper 50's. Highs Wednesday low 60's with winds increasing late. This will be ahead of a storm system by Thursday. Highs reaching near 60 with heavy rain/t-storms then temperatures will cool down to end the week. Highs will be in the 40's.

A band of light snow developing Friday late afternoon and early evening to bring a dusting of snow

Friday morning lows will be about 30 degrees outside the city mid to upper 20's. Highs will warm in the mid to upper 40's before temperatures drop off, increasing winds, and a band of light snow develops along and near the Ohio river. A dusting of snow is not ruled out. Saturday morning lows will the coldest of the season at upper teens to near 20. Highs in the mid 30's to upper 30's Saturday.

Some snow could make it to south portion of the city Wednesday

Highs will be in the 30's tomorrow. Snow showers could make it to south Louisville. It could dust the ground otherwise no accumulation. Better chance of  <1" further south and east. Heaviest snow Wednesday afternoon 2-4" across  SE KY.  Thursday will mid to upper with clear skies. We have snow showers Friday late with a quick drop in temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 40's before the snow showers arrives then drop in the 30's. Cold Saturday highs in the mid 30's. Sunday low to mid 40's with clear skies.

Coldest air of season so far Saturday but mild up for early next week to the 50's

Thank you for stopping. No changes to be made with our next storm to affect part of Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday. Heaviest will be SE KY but the question will be how far west and north it snows in KY. I don't know yet. Highs tomorrow upper 30's to near 40 range. Highs in the mid 40's to upper Thursday. Friday our surge of modified Arctic air will move in late and dropping our temperatures. Highs will be near 40 then a band of snow showers may develop. Saturday highs in the mid 30's which will be the coldest so far but not as cold as I mentioned on blog Saturday. This is a quick shot and it's further east. Highs Sunday will be in the 40's and back in the 50's early next week.

Record yearly rainfall

We are 65.85 now and counting. We broke the old record of over 64" back in 2004. We asw 2.48 " inches of rain and.50" rainfall yesterday which makes are total rainfall right at 3" as a 2 day total. Our eyes will turn to our next storm Wednesday- Thursday. Latest models today are keeping this south. UKMET bring us little snow and is the furthest north of the model. We will have to monitor this to see how far north the snow makes it and the timing as I feel the timing is suspect. We won't now for sure until the last minute but the heavest snows will be in SE KY. This is a fast moving system. It will hit and dump.

Latest nam models is developing a snowstorm across the state Wednesday night- Thursday

Yeah I been mentioned on my post on accumulating snows this week. The time frame has been changed. A few models are supporting what I said and as long as I get some support I am not ruling it out. Latest 0z nam says yes starting Wednesday night. It matches now gfs runs earlier today that I examine. The question becomes. Is it correct? Time will tell. I like for the foreign models go to this solution before it's set in stone. It was yesterday and day before that foreign models had another low preesure wave.Tomorrow we will see.

First we have heavy rain and flooding issues to deal with. 2-3" looks good to me with areas western KY ranging 4"-to as much 6" totals thru Tuesday am. Tuesday we will may see some drizzle. Rain will stay east of us with highs around. Wednesday will be around 40 instead of 30's then we may see on our snow Wednesday evening- Thursday.

Big changes is about to transpire in the Ohio Valley

Enjoy the 62-64  degree day because it will be the last 60's we see for a while.The rule for next week will be first the flood potential. The ground is saturated so another round of 2-3"of rain with some areas seeing 4-5". This will be due to a stalled front come by Monday with a wave of low pressure. Rain will start sometime Sunday afternoon before that temperatures are expected to reach 60 with windy conditions. Rain will be very heavy by Monday. A repeat of last Monday is expected. Monday temperatures still looking to hold to in the 50's. Tuesday will be colder with highs in the 40's. The front will pass through just to our east but still be stalled. Another low pressure will ride along the front along with a upper low to the west. They both will work together to produce our first accumulating snows of the season starting Tuesday night through Wednesday night across the state. Highs will be in the 30's. This upper feature is a bit colder than last week setting. Look at it on the Euro for Wednesday pm.

We miss out on the snow last Tuesday because temperaturers wasn't cold enough. Thursday and Friday temperatures will be back into the 40's out of ahead of a huge arctic blast. Look a this bad boy on the Euro. This is impressive.

By Saturday temperatures will be tank big time with this Arctic blast. Also a good chance of accumulating snow and gusty winds. Gfs shows 1000-500mb thickness which supports snow by Saturday am.

So this snow lovers pattern and we will add to the snows as the winter wears on.

Analogs of 1984 had a snowstorm on December 5

Check out the top 8 highest daily snowfall in December. Notice 1984 shows up. 1917 is number it was followed after a moderate La'Nina similar to last year. Also a second La'Nina. Big time snows in December are rare here. Last one 2004 which is on the list below. The total was 10". Look for January to rev up in this part of country.  As stated in my winter forecast December is expected to be a transition month but that's doesn't mean we won't see several inches 2-3" or a snowstorm 4".

Louisville Area  (ThreadEx Station)
Extremes
Highest Daily Snowfall (inches)
Days: 12/1 - 12/31
Length of period: 1 day
Years: 1884-2011

Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1    15.0  12/8/1917
  2     8.2  12/26/1894
  3     7.8  12/23/1939
  4     5.9  12/30/1895
  5     5.5  12/22/2004
  6     5.0  12/9/1961, 12/5/1910
  8     4.7  12/5/1984  9     4.5  12/24/1999, 12/14/1916

Even warmer now this weekend with highs around 60 before heavy rains moves in Sunday night- Tuesday

Highs today will be around 50. 54-55 degrees Friday with good amount of sunshine. Breezy with high clouds Saturday. Highs around 60. Sunday heavy rain moves in the afternoon sometime. As stated yesterday cold front will put the break on and continue heavy rain Monday. 2-3 total rainfall yet again thru Tuesday which will break our all-time record yearly rainfall since 2004. Turning colder Tuesday with rain changing snow with wave low pressure and another cutoff low taking hold. Snow continues Wednesday with upper low around. Look at the euro model for next Tuesday pm