Saturday, December 31, 2011

Lows tonight will be near 40 tonight and highs mid 40's on your New Year Day

Winds will really crank tomorrow afternoon and evening. Temperatures Monday am will be in the 20's and stay there all day. Winds will be even stronger and snow showers will developing as the approach the afternoon hours Monday. We will talk about snow accumulations on our next update. Have fun and be careful tonight.

Friday, December 30, 2011

One more full mild day in the end the year

Highs today upper 50's today. Tonight  lows 50. Highs New Years Day with the front #1 Sunday am with be in the low 50's. A slight chance of showers along with it.Temperatures falling  in the 30's in the evening. Winds will be stronger.Sunday night as Arctic front #2  sweep through. Snow flurries will be possible.  Arctic air will be really notieable Monday with lows in the low to mid 20's. Highs looks to still hold in the mid 20's with gusty northwesterly gusting over 30 mph. Those cold northwesterly winds will produce widespread lake effect snows which moisture from Lake effect will bring widespread snow snowers & flurries half the state. Along I-65 and points east. Snow ratios will be very high so these can dump a quick coating of snow. Snow will be dry and powery. Blowing snows will occur as well. Time frame will be Monday afternoon thru Tuesday am. It will be tough to be outside Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday will be even colder. Here is the latest nam for Monday early evening. We have to watch this over the next few days to snow how much we see can out of this. We rarely see snow from Lake effect moisture here in Louisville. It has been so mild this winter so far and our 1st Arctic blast of the season. It coming straight down to us.

Mild temperatures to finish the year and much colder to start to begin 2012

Highs today and tomorrow in the upper 50's. Winds will pick up this afternoon. Sunny day Saturday then our next arctic blast will be on the move Sunday afternoon dropping our temperatures into the 30's. A few flurries and strong winds behind the front.  Off and on flurries will contine thru Monday. Wind chills single digits.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Latest update on the Arctic blast to start the New Year

Latest update on the latest arctic blast to sweep across the region New Years Day afternoon- Tuesday. Canadian models still has rain to snow Sunday with temperatures falling in the mid 30's by late afternoon with getting stronger and stronger. Temperatures looks to fall in the around 20 by Monday am with strong winds continuing. Windchills will be in the single digits Monday am. Highs Monday will probably be in the mid 20's. Snow flurries will be around and lots of clouds and windy conditions. If we clear out Monday night we could see single digits lows if not we will see teens. Tuesday we will also see high temperatures in the 20's. Temperatures will start to moderate mid to late next week.

Coldest air of the season arrives to start 2012

Mild temperatures will continue today with highs in the mid to upper 50's with southwest winds increasing in the afternoon. A breezy night with lows in the mid to upper 40's. Friday will see highs in the mid to upper 50's again with a few showers around in the afternoon. Colder air moves in the evening. Snow showers will stay north and east of us. New years eve looks pleasant with highs in the low to mid 50's. Clouds will increasing Saturday night into Sunday am rain will develop by mid morning then blast of Arctic air will sweep through the region in the afternoon and behind the surge snow showers and strong winds will have you shivering. Early next temperatures will struggle to get close to freezing mark with wind chills in the upper teens to low 20's across the state. Lows at night around 20. Few flurries are possible especially Monday.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Warmer end of the week; Colder early next week;

Highs today in the low 40's today and highs in the 50's to end the week. New Years Day evening rain looks to be developing then turning colder early next week with a possiblity of some snow Monday. We will watch this in the coming days.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Transitioning to heavy snow around 11am

Ongoing forecast looks good

Snowfall amounts up to 1" some may see 2" Louisville and northern KY
2" Southern Indy & 2" Indy
Temperatures will be in the mid 30's this afternoon. Wet snow will be heavy and come down pretty down this afternoon. Tapering off light snow & flurries this evening

Tonight below freezing low upper 20's so some slick spots developing overnight tonight- Wednesday am.

Monday, December 26, 2011

Latest models has heaviest snow S.IN to Louisville

Latest Japanesse model Tuesday am around 5am has us on edge of snow with 540 thickness just to the west. It will be on the move throughout the morning. Lows tonight 38. Tuesday high temperature will hold steady at 38-39 degrees. That will occur in the morning.



 Latest forecast scenrios we will be watching for on Tuesday

If we get changes to snow 10am Louisville and just south see 1" could see up to 2" of snow
Southern IN 2"
Further south in KY less than 1
Indy 1-2"

If  snow changes over around 1pm  little or no acumulations here in Louisville
Southern IN 1"
Indy 1"

Accumulations will mainly be on the grassy areas on Tuesday. Temperatures will be above freezing throughout the day.

Note if we get deformation zone over river and  and points south then snowfall amounts will be little higher.

Interesting forecast Tuesday!

Rain changing to snow Tuesday mid morning

Good morning. I hope every had a merry christmas. Today's weather will feature increasing clouds thru the afternoon from sw to ne then rain will move after midnight. Temperatures 47-48 degrees. Tonight temperatures will drop in the upper 30's. Rain/snow line will be knocking on our door in the am then rain changing to snow here looks like by 10 am. If that happens then snowfall accumulations will be higher in order of 1-2". 2" if we see deformation zone setting up in Louisville which nam models is indicating on new 12Z run. If we see a later transition the less we snow we get. Later means by 1pm or later. Just less than 1".Temperatures will stay above freezing throughout the day 33-36. Windy condition throughout the afternoon as well. Tuesday night snow shower and flurries will continue as colder air continue to push through and temperatures will dip into the mid 20's so slick spot will develop by Wednesday am. Wednesday will high temperatures in the mid 30's. Stay tuned for the latest forecast on our first measureable snowfall of the season.

Sunday, December 25, 2011

First snow accumulation of the season is finally in the forecast on Tuesday as temperatures drop and winds increases

Latest models are now in good agreement that rain arrive tomorrow overnight then by mid morning rain changing to snow. One thing we have to watch out is who will see the heaviest snowfall? Will that band set up in Louisville, east, or southeast of us. There is anyway I can answer that, but  I can say is that all of areas will see snowfall Tuesday ranging near 1-2" across the area. Stay tune for more update on our first snowfall of the season.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Rain changing to snow Tuesday alog with windy condition as the day wears on

I'm hope you folks out there are having a bless day. Most of you are doing last minute shopping. I'm stopping to give you the latest weather update. Latest computer models are giving us hope for snow on Tuesday. I would have like for  the timing of this same system we have been tracking for a week now to have been  for Christmas but it's closer to my birthday December 28. Timing is still leading to an opportunity snow just before my birthday. First before I show the models. Today thru Monday will be dry. Monday overnight rain. No need to talk about this part of forecast. Tuesday there is disagreement among  some of the models on the when we switch to snow. I do believe we will see snow but when we switch to snow is yet to determine.

Here is what the models say for Tuesday when rain change snow:
JMA:  Snow early Tuesday am
EURO: Rain changing to snow mid to late morning
Nam:  light snow Tuesday am
Canadian: rain changing to snow lunchtime
gfs:  An outlyer Rain changing to some snow especially SE KY

Marcus: I think right now studying this. I certain believe we will see rain changing to snow on Tuesday but it's impossible for me to say now when. We will watch over next couple of days.

I noticed most models are phasing this storm and intensfying as it tracks NE through Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Winds will increasing.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Revise 2011-2012 winter forecast

Good morning. I been looking over the forecast for this winter. I don't think now that we will see up to 40"  for the season but we still a chance to see 25'' up to 30" only if we can get neutral to negative nao. So far we have been in a postive nao.That is the biggest reason we haven't seen snowfall yet. As the season matures we will see snowfall that put a smile on our face. We have to be patient. Temperatures won't be as cold as I previously forecast overall this winter. The month's of January and Feburary I still believe it be colder than normal. The eastern/southern US looks to be mild this winter. Today forecast highs will stay in the low 40's with cloudy skies sprinkles/flurries. Saturday will be in mid 40's and Christmas Day and Monday near 50. It will be dry More rain chances Monday even if we get colder enough could end as light snow Tuesday. Most models are hinting this.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

No snow for xmas

Sorry folks! No snow for xmas. Temperatures will be too warm for one and the storm will have to phase( northern and southern jet stream. If it were to phase and cold air come together it would be Sunday night into Monday am and best chances even then be just east us. Stay tune As model data on that. Today's weather. Temperatures will be around 50 before heavy rain afternoon and evening hours then it will make a quick exit. We may see a flurry early Friday am. Friday will be dry with sunshine returning. Highs Friday 45.  Saturday will be nice with good amount of sun. Highs in the upper 40's.Christmas Day highs about 50. Monday will be colder.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Latest Euro give some hope for snow for Christmas

Here is euro holding on to idea of snow by Christmas Day am. The question is its right and if it is how much snow we see? Other models has a storm. Canadian model is hangin too much SW energy to me but it has rain changing to snow at night thru Monday am. Gfs has nothing. Japanesse has storm with snow throughout the day. It's too early for details but I do believe we have shot at snow if we have enough cold air. It don't have to be 32 or lower to snow. If it snow hard enough it can stick on the grassy area. I want snow. We don't have to snowstorm in my view. We have watch Saturday night- Christmas Day for snow. Our timing takes us instead of Christmas eve evening more like Christmas eve night thru Christmas Day and another cold surge Christmas night to bring light snow or flurries. Little slower on timing than morning update . We will fine tuned forecast as get more data. We are still 5 days out.

Active pattern this week; Still a chance of snow Christmas Eve another Christmas Day night

Today highs should get into the 50's. Rain will move after 11am today and early afternoon. More heavier rain overnight into Wednesday am. Highs Wednesday also now will be close to 60 or at 60. Cooler air moves in later in the day then our attention will be on our next storm Thursday. It will move heavy rain from the SW with a low. Highs will be in the 40's Friday will we see a break in the precipitation. Another low pressure from the western gulf will track east-northeastern will affect our area Christmas Eve.  With east winds and low pressure tracking into GA Saturday night it will bring an opportunity for snow. Highs in the 40's. Temperatures looks borderline as always for snow. Another opportunity for snow Christmas night with another low from the NW.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Will we have a white xmas?

Good morning. This is xmas week. Lot of people will planning vacation. So lets discuss the latest forecast. Today we see lots of clouds with highs low 50's a few sprinkles possible. Lows tonight in the upper 40's. Most of tomorrow will be dry. Later in the day and night heavy rain will arrive. High making a run at 60. Last 60 for while. Most of the rain will out of here Wednesday with highs in the mid 50's. A storm from the SW Thursday will spread more rain. Highs near 50. Friday we have to watch our next approaching shot of cold air and low pressure to affect the area. Friday is looking ok. Highs in the 40's. It's Friday thru Christmas Eve that could be interesting. Models are trying to develop a storm but there are diffrence. It's too early to tell on details so stay tuned as get more data. The weekend looks colder. Highs in the 30's.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Nice weekend on tap

We need a few light/snow south Louisville and points south and east. Highs 40 today. Some places may only see upper 30's. The weekend looking good. Highs Saturday in the 40's and back into the 50's Sunday. The return of 60's early next week yet again. Breezy condition Monday. Monday night and Tuesday heavy rain/t-storms. Wednesday precipitation rain could end as few flakes with windy condition. Highs in the 40's with falling temperatures. The end of week will be even colder. An interesting storm system to end the week will bring more precipitation. It could starts out as rain changing to snow as enough colder air moves in. Winds increasing. This will be a fun storm to track. Here is Canadian model says for next Friday PM- thru Christmas Eve am. Hello!

Showers/wind this morning; Few more showers Friday; Tricky storm middle of next week

Today temperatures will be in the low to 60's mid. Front will stalled tonight and Friday to our south. We will have overrunning moisture over top. It will bring us a cold light rain along river and points south. Highs around 40. The weekend looking good highs in the 40's to around 50 Sunday. Monday our next cold front and low pressure will start impact the area. It will impact us further as we get into the middle of next week. We will see more rain then if  we see enough cold air we could end as light snow Wednesday. Canadian model agree.
Over the last few days I have been tracking the models trying to develop a phasing storm by xmas eve. Euro had it couple of days and now here is this canadian model is showing something similar. If this run has low further west it would be a monster storm for Ohio Valley. Gfs model has a storm but it's rain. If we have some cold air to work we have a good shot of a white xmas again this year if this is right.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Warmest day of the month today; We could see a white xmas again this year

Highs in the upper 60's today. 70 not ruled out in some places. Heavy rain/storms with 60 temperatures by Thursday am. Temperatures not warming much tomorrow. Slight chance of a few showers mainly south Friday. Highs in the 40's. 40's will continue Saturday. Sunday- Monday highs returning in the 50's before more rain early next week. Cooler temperatures return for mid week. Late next week we could see much colder air and our precipitation. If we can get much colder air Christmas weekend there will be good chance of a white christmas. Models are hinting snow next weekend. More on this as we get closer and look at more data.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Added a chance of a few showers and lower temperatures today

Good morning. A cloudy day with highs around 50. A chance of showers especially 65 and to the west. Little more more sun later tomorrow with highs in the mid 60's. Winds will increasing late. Rain/t-storms moves for Thursday am. Highs in the 60's. A front will stalled out the south and we may see some overunning showers Friday. Highs in the 40's. 40's for highs will end the week. More more rain for early next week. More on that as the week wears on.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Highs in the 50's and 60's this week; Rain/t-storms chances Thursday

Good Monday morning. A great start to the week. Temperatures will be warmer each day thru mid week. Highs will reach 50 today.Even warmer Tuesday with highs mid to upper 50's. Highs Wednesday low 60's with winds increasing late. This will be ahead of a storm system by Thursday. Highs reaching near 60 with heavy rain/t-storms then temperatures will cool down to end the week. Highs will be in the 40's.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

A band of light snow developing Friday late afternoon and early evening to bring a dusting of snow

Friday morning lows will be about 30 degrees outside the city mid to upper 20's. Highs will warm in the mid to upper 40's before temperatures drop off, increasing winds, and a band of light snow develops along and near the Ohio river. A dusting of snow is not ruled out. Saturday morning lows will the coldest of the season at upper teens to near 20. Highs in the mid 30's to upper 30's Saturday.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Some snow could make it to south portion of the city Wednesday

Highs will be in the 30's tomorrow. Snow showers could make it to south Louisville. It could dust the ground otherwise no accumulation. Better chance of  <1" further south and east. Heaviest snow Wednesday afternoon 2-4" across  SE KY.  Thursday will mid to upper with clear skies. We have snow showers Friday late with a quick drop in temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 40's before the snow showers arrives then drop in the 30's. Cold Saturday highs in the mid 30's. Sunday low to mid 40's with clear skies.

Coldest air of season so far Saturday but mild up for early next week to the 50's

Thank you for stopping. No changes to be made with our next storm to affect part of Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday. Heaviest will be SE KY but the question will be how far west and north it snows in KY. I don't know yet. Highs tomorrow upper 30's to near 40 range. Highs in the mid 40's to upper Thursday. Friday our surge of modified Arctic air will move in late and dropping our temperatures. Highs will be near 40 then a band of snow showers may develop. Saturday highs in the mid 30's which will be the coldest so far but not as cold as I mentioned on blog Saturday. This is a quick shot and it's further east. Highs Sunday will be in the 40's and back in the 50's early next week.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Record yearly rainfall

We are 65.85 now and counting. We broke the old record of over 64" back in 2004. We asw 2.48 " inches of rain and.50" rainfall yesterday which makes are total rainfall right at 3" as a 2 day total. Our eyes will turn to our next storm Wednesday- Thursday. Latest models today are keeping this south. UKMET bring us little snow and is the furthest north of the model. We will have to monitor this to see how far north the snow makes it and the timing as I feel the timing is suspect. We won't now for sure until the last minute but the heavest snows will be in SE KY. This is a fast moving system. It will hit and dump.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Latest nam models is developing a snowstorm across the state Wednesday night- Thursday

Yeah I been mentioned on my post on accumulating snows this week. The time frame has been changed. A few models are supporting what I said and as long as I get some support I am not ruling it out. Latest 0z nam says yes starting Wednesday night. It matches now gfs runs earlier today that I examine. The question becomes. Is it correct? Time will tell. I like for the foreign models go to this solution before it's set in stone. It was yesterday and day before that foreign models had another low preesure wave.Tomorrow we will see.

First we have heavy rain and flooding issues to deal with. 2-3" looks good to me with areas western KY ranging 4"-to as much 6" totals thru Tuesday am. Tuesday we will may see some drizzle. Rain will stay east of us with highs around. Wednesday will be around 40 instead of 30's then we may see on our snow Wednesday evening- Thursday.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Big changes is about to transpire in the Ohio Valley

Enjoy the 62-64  degree day because it will be the last 60's we see for a while.The rule for next week will be first the flood potential. The ground is saturated so another round of 2-3"of rain with some areas seeing 4-5". This will be due to a stalled front come by Monday with a wave of low pressure. Rain will start sometime Sunday afternoon before that temperatures are expected to reach 60 with windy conditions. Rain will be very heavy by Monday. A repeat of last Monday is expected. Monday temperatures still looking to hold to in the 50's. Tuesday will be colder with highs in the 40's. The front will pass through just to our east but still be stalled. Another low pressure will ride along the front along with a upper low to the west. They both will work together to produce our first accumulating snows of the season starting Tuesday night through Wednesday night across the state. Highs will be in the 30's. This upper feature is a bit colder than last week setting. Look at it on the Euro for Wednesday pm.



We miss out on the snow last Tuesday because temperaturers wasn't cold enough. Thursday and Friday temperatures will be back into the 40's out of ahead of a huge arctic blast. Look a this bad boy on the Euro. This is impressive.
By Saturday temperatures will be tank big time with this Arctic blast. Also a good chance of accumulating snow and gusty winds. Gfs shows 1000-500mb thickness which supports snow by Saturday am.


So this snow lovers pattern and we will add to the snows as the winter wears on.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Analogs of 1984 had a snowstorm on December 5

Check out the top 8 highest daily snowfall in December. Notice 1984 shows up. 1917 is number it was followed after a moderate La'Nina similar to last year. Also a second La'Nina. Big time snows in December are rare here. Last one 2004 which is on the list below. The total was 10". Look for January to rev up in this part of country.  As stated in my winter forecast December is expected to be a transition month but that's doesn't mean we won't see several inches 2-3" or a snowstorm 4".

Louisville Area  (ThreadEx Station)
Extremes
Highest Daily Snowfall (inches)
Days: 12/1 - 12/31
Length of period: 1 day
Years: 1884-2011

Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1    15.0  12/8/1917
  2     8.2  12/26/1894
  3     7.8  12/23/1939
  4     5.9  12/30/1895
  5     5.5  12/22/2004
  6     5.0  12/9/1961, 12/5/1910
  8     4.7  12/5/1984  9     4.5  12/24/1999, 12/14/1916

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Even warmer now this weekend with highs around 60 before heavy rains moves in Sunday night- Tuesday

Highs today will be around 50. 54-55 degrees Friday with good amount of sunshine. Breezy with high clouds Saturday. Highs around 60. Sunday heavy rain moves in the afternoon sometime. As stated yesterday cold front will put the break on and continue heavy rain Monday. 2-3 total rainfall yet again thru Tuesday which will break our all-time record yearly rainfall since 2004. Turning colder Tuesday with rain changing snow with wave low pressure and another cutoff low taking hold. Snow continues Wednesday with upper low around. Look at the euro model for next Tuesday pm

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Clouds will take a while to leave today and a nice ending to the week

Highs ranging from the the upper 30's to low 40's depending on how much sun we can get later. Lows tonight about 28. Temperatures rebounding  to 50 on Thursday to start the 1st of December(my favorite month and my birthday month). Even warmer Friday Low 50's Friday. Upper 50's and a breezy afternoon Saturday. A beautiful ending of the week. Early next week another heavy rain event starting Sunday. Windy day. Highs upper 50's. A front will put the breaks on Monday with heavy rain continuing. We have watch a wave of low preesure and cold air behind the front to see it's impact the region. Plenty time to fine tuned the forecast. Here the rainfall amount thru Monday am. 1.00-1.25 western and central part of the state. We are 1.75" from the yearly rainfall record. We could challenge this.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Backlash rain/snow this evening thru overnight

Temperatures will continue to drop slowly and hopefully we can see my snow accumulations I expected to see before this month comes to a close. .01 will be classfied as snow accumulations. We standing at 36 as I write. Low tonight will reach 32 degrees.No problems in the morning with cloudy skies. More updates in the am on Clouds for Wednesday and sneak look at early next week weather.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Snow breaking out in the afternoon Tuesday thru Tuesday night

1" or less wet snow is expected with the track of upper low looking to be being further west. Snow accumulations mainly on the grassy areas. Winds will increasing during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures dropping in the 30's with wind chills in the upper 20's. Highs will occur early in the 40's. If we stay cloudy Wednesday we will stay in the 30's more sun pm low 40's. One day near or around 50 Thursday. The weekend will be in the 50's. Another storm system late weekend/early next week is being watch. More on that as week wears on. Lets get through the snow Tuesday.

upper 40's later today then fallng temperatures falling into the 30's with wet snow

Heavy rain this afternoon and evening. More rain Tuesday changing to snow Snow accumulation is expected but nothing big. How much exactly we see will determine the track of upper low to the south today?  Areas to the south in or around Memphis my hometown expected 2 up to 6" of snow. Models shows us <1" but if we see track upper low track e-tn and e.ky will see more. More updates on snow later.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Flood watch for most of state; Snow acculation is expected but not a big snow

Over half in inch of rain as of early evening. Another 1-2"  rain expected thru Wednesday am. More heavy rain Monday afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the mid 40's. Lows tonight and tomorrow night 40 degrees. Winds becoming gusty Tuesday with rain changing to wet snow. High 40 and dropping into the 30's late. It will feel like upper 20's being out there. Snow will continue through the night ending Wednesday am. Snow accumulation is expected but not a big snow producer. Low Wednesday am near 30. If we stay cloudy we will stay in the 30's for high temperatures. More sun into low to mid 40's. Tricky forecast. We will see no 50's this week. Even colder next week to start December. Here is upper low that Euro is seeing Tuesday am in the NW AL. It will move ne toward us and change rain to snow.

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Winter forecast 2011-2012

My winter forecast expected to be a colder version of this map. -3.0 below normal across our area. Add  LIGHT BLUE  instead of light green down Tennessee and close or at normal across northeast  This is based on a weak La'nina forecast on the models. Closest analog match 1950-1951 &1984-1985  fall and winter. Both of the fall season had two months above normal precipitation. Both are second time La' Nina. This is the only weak La'Nina years that I can find since 1900 with being wet similar to this year. 1950 was the only year with a wet Sept and Nov similar to 2011. La'Nina falls are usually dry over Ohio Valley.  Look at different models forecast of the sea surface temperature. -sign means La'Nina. The colder the temperature the stronger the La'Nina.  Few of them has La'Nina being strong and some neutral ( close to 0 + or - but that not expected to happen. We are currently at a .-9 has I write. More of them has us in a weaker La'Nina which I expected. Weaker than last year.

Table 1. Forecast SST Anomalies (deg C) in the Nino 3.4 Region
 Seasons (2011-2012)
Model NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS
Dynamical models
NASA GMAO model -1.7 -1.9 -2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.3 -1.1    
NCEP Coupled Fcst Sys model -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8  
Japan Met. Agency model -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1        
Scripps Inst. HCM -0.8 -1 -1.1 -1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1
Lamont-Doherty model -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9
POAMA (Austr) model -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4      
ECMWF model -1.1 -1 -0.8 -0.5          
UKMO model -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9          
KMA (Korea) SNU model -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
ESSIC Intermed. Coupled model -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0 0.1 0.1 0.2
ECHAM/MOM -1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0        
COLA ANOM -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6
MÉTÉO FRANCE model -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2        
COLA CCSM3 model -0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6
NCEP CFS version 2 -1.5 -1.7 -1.6 -1.3 -0.9 -0.7 -0.3    
CSIR-IRI 3-model MME -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9        
GFDL CM2.1 Coupled Climate model -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8
Average, dynamical models-0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1   
Statistical models
NCEP/CPC Markov model -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0 0.1 0.2
NOAA/CDC Linear Inverse -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3
NCEP/CPC Constructed Analog -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
NCEP/CPC Can Cor Anal -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0 0.1
Landsea/Knaff CLIPER -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0 0 0
Univ. BC Neural Network -1 -1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0
FSU Regression -1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3
TDC - UCLA -1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Average, statistical models-0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Average, all models -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0 0.1

 

Low sunspot activity will play role our winter forecast. It played a role in 2009-2010 winter with Washington D.C record snowfall, Louisville ice storm in 2008-2009, and Chicago blizzard in Feburary 2011 and will play a role this year too. In the past it played a role in the 70's with the blizzard of 1978 here. Look at the lower sunspot number and think back to it's influence on our storms in the US



 Fresh snow across Alaska and north edge of North America will serve us well through the winter months.


These are my supported facts of a colder and stormier than normal season for third year in a row. This year expected to colder than last year. Blockbluster storm or storms (double digits or more) is expected to affect us compared to the last two years. Storm track will dominate the Lakes and Ohio Valley as 1950-1951 did that year. 1950 had 34" of snow of the season.

December transition to cold
Coldest winter expected to be January and Feburary 2012
Snowfall amounts 35-40" 1st 30+ more since 1977-78 finally! Top 3 snowiest winter in Louisville history

Last mild day for while; Another soaker on the way

I thought we are done with 70 but this time will our last one if we see it today until March then changes will occur . Winds will gusty over 30mph. Heavy rains/t-storms will move in on your Sunday am. 2-3" of rain is expected thru mid week on average. Highs Sunday will be mid to upper 50's. Temperatures will cool late Sunday. Monday will be upper 40's with more occassional rain. By Tuesday am we have to watch to see if we can upper low from the south come over top of us. If it happen we could see rain change to wet snow. Tuesday we also have gusty winds and colder temperatures. High will be near 40. It  feel like the upper 20's. Brrrrrrrrrr. Models still needs some work on what will actually happen over the next 2-4 days. We won't know til the time. We monitor this changeable weather and update as we need to. Winter forecast will be out later.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Cold air and moisture is being trap on your Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving everybody. Thanks you for stopping by. Highs won't be in the 60's today due to the stubborn clouds. Clouds will hang tough through early pm maybe longer then clouds should break. So highs proaly be in the mid 50's or lower today. Low tonight will be around 40 tonight for Black Friday. Highs in the upper 60's Friday and Saturday. Windy again for the 3rd Saturday in a row. Rain will be move Saturday evening thru Sunday am. I'm certain with that part of the forecast. All models I studied are still struggling for rest of Sunday- thru early next week set up with this cut off low. I still see good opportunity for snow. Details are unknown. Check back with us over next few days leading to the time period.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Slight risk of severe weather; Better chance east

Severe weather with damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and hail. Highs near 70. If we see 70 this will be the last one of the year. Rainfall 1-2" of rain today. Wednesday will be low 50's decreasing clouds, Thursday thru Saturday will be 62-68 degree range. Rain will move in Saturday night- Sunday. Then models are showing a cutoff low pressure. Cold air will be trap underneath and warm over the top. These cotoff low pressure systems are difficult to pindown. We have these earlier this fall and we will end the fall season with this. We are later in the season so there will be snow around Sunday late=Monday. Here are latest models gfs and euro 500mb heights. Models from euro is Sunday evening and Monday evening. I like the idea of snow over the Ohio Valley. I mentioned this back in October in my blog and early this month of snow in November. Look back all of what I said. Could this be our snow I talk about? This fits my analogs of I have used. This will fun to track throughout the week.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Unsettled weather early next week then a nice Thanksgiving

Today will perfect day. Highs will be low to mid 60's. Clouds and winds will increase this afternoon. Winds will gust up to 35 mph today. Sunday rain heavy at times with our first wave with a stalled frontal boundary near us. Highs will hold in the low to mid. Monday we will keep a shower chance around because of the front nearby. Highs could get 70. If we get some sun it could see higher. Lows will hold in the 60's Tuesday am. A stronger and bigger low will impact us Tuesday will bring us very heavy rains and thunderstorms. We have watch this storm carefully because it spitting out some impressive rainfall amounts. Here is the hpc amounts. This will change as we get closer to the event.
 Thanksgiving Day weather and black Friday will be perfect. Highs will be between 60-65. There alot to be thankful not just thanksgiving day. Models( Canadian, gfs, euro) all showing another storm by Thanksgiving weekend for more heavy rains/storms opportunity.  With now being conviced of a wet November and  actually having a wet September. Winter forecast I have being working on is looking good. It will be issued by next weekend.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Mid to upper 40's Thursday with a snow flurry possible by or around sunrise

Highs projected to be about 46. Our first hard freeze at 28 Friday am rebounding to the low 53. Winds will be gusty again on Saturday to  30-40 mph. Highs in the low 60's We are done with mid 70's until March. Not ruling out 70 day next week. A unsettled and stormy pattern with a stalled frontal boundary thru mid week next week. No Arctic cold air through Thanksgiving week. A mild Thanksgiving this year and  looks like now a mild and wet month overall.Final winter forecast will likely be out late next week.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Severe weather possible tonight then heavy rains Tuesday & Wednesday am; Roaster coaster week

2-3" of rain across the state thru Wednesday. Latest qpf still bringing us high amounts of rain but i'm not sure if we see that much. I say 2-3 range is the way to go. Severe weather will be here around midnight. Highs around 60 Tuesday. Highs mid week will be in the 40's. Another late week mild and windy weekend yet again with high by the weekend in the 60's.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Severe weather threat & heavy rains are on the way next few days

Windy conditions and temperatures well in the 70's are expected today and Monday. Highs  at least 75 may be higher if we see more sun. Winds gust up to 40mph. Here is severe threat Monday late from SPC.
Storm #2 Tuesday and Wednesday am will the stronger of two. We have watch for heavy rains. Here is rainfall from qpf. It suggests over 3" of rains as total thru Wednesday. If this storm slow down further which has been the trend then we could see little more.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Snow shower or flurries in the forecast Thursday evening

After looking over the last couple runs of the gfs it's showing an disturbance that will dive in and bring our first snow flurries or snow shower of the season. Here is the latest models indicates below. Today high reach 75. Highs Wednesday will fall into the 50's. Tomorrow night in the upper 30's. Thursday colder air moves in later highs will be in the mid 40's.

Monday, November 7, 2011

Reverse to cold Thursday then mild for the weekend again

Monday and Tuesday looks really good Highs around 70 then mainly morning heavy rain and some t-storms Wednesday am will dropped temperatures throughout the day Wednesday from 60 into the 40's late. Thursday and Friday will  see highs in the 40's before a mild up for the weekend. Here is the latest European model Thursday. Nice cold straight from Canadian. This is a preview of what we will see the end of the month into the December.

Monday, October 31, 2011

1st half of November will be mild and second half colder, wet, snow accumulations

Here is a look at thursday AM from european models. Low pressure in missori. This will bring rain here throughout the day Thursday. Highs near 60. This will be coolest day this week. Before that highs will warm in the upper 60's to low 70's.




This weekend look nice at this point. Mild pattern should dominate the 1st part of the month. Winter forecast is still being fine tune. I having decided yet when I will finalize it.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Analogs suggesting that November expecting to be colder,snowier, and wetter than normal

Facts why November should be cold, snowier, and wetter than nornal.

1) 1954 was a weak La'Nina year early fall saw 100+ degree weather in September just like this year. November saw record cold high low 32 in early November.

September 1950 was a weak La'Nina. It was cool/wet just like this year. The following November saw a we above  normal snow, above normal rain, and way below nornal cold.

1975 and 1950 was one of top ten wettest years on record. 2011 will be in the top 10. Could be number 1. Both had snowfall in November.

Most weak La'Nina are cold looking at most of the weak LaNina November's. 1950,1954, 1995, 2000.
Only 1974 is the only one.

We are right now at a -0.7. So I'm expecting a weak La'Nina November.

So I'm expecting a cold, snowier, and wetter than normal November. My winter forecast will be out sometime in November.

Models disagreement mid to late week; Below normal weekend with freeze more likely

Last 80 day Tuesday then complex forecast mid to late with sw flow over our area. These pattern our complex. It will bring temperature crash and heavy rains. Wednesday highs ranging between 65-75 depend how much clouds and rain will see. Gfs has rain most of the day. Canadian and European suggest no.

Here is the latest Canadian Thursday am. Heavy rain with temperatures contrast to the north. Colder will ooze southward. Highs in the 50's to near 60.

Friday and weekend below normal temperatues will rule for the weekend. Snow showers are possible mainly north according to the Canadian models. Not a forecast.  A freeze is looking more likely if we clear out.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Tumbling temperatures mid week and gusty winds

Here is a qpf from nam and gfs through Wednesday evening. Heaviest rains in the SE US from tropical moisture which could be a named storm and mainly north of us.We will keep an eye on this over next 24- 48 hours. Another soaking rains here.

Tumbling temperatures, clouds, showers, and gusty winds will rule our forecast  mid week to late. Look at our 500 mb vort ht for Wednesday. Huge trough. Wow! It will drop are highs in the 40's for couple days. Late week expect widespread heavy frost and freezing overnight lows across the state.
Here is snow day winter forecast map I want to show you. This is not there final one but there 2nd update. It's still saying a snowy winter across our part of the country. Also an enchanced area of snow on top of that. An excellent discussion I read on their forecast. I like their forecast.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Streak of dry weather will end and cooling temperatures over next few days

Hello folks. It's been a long time since I update. I some time away. I'm glad to start slowly working my away in the give you updates of the weather. Here below is latest 12Z gfs temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Highs in the upper 60's. I believe we will go below those projected computer generated numbers. I think highs will be low to mid 60's. Rain cool air Thursday should holds down below these numbers. Rain will tapering off later Thursday.  Rain amounts will  be tricky. Models ( gfs and nam) suggesting .25-.50 on average. If we see heavier bands I can see .50- 1.00" of rain. Windy Friday. Temperatures warming back up to 80 Sunday and Monday.

LOUISVILLE     
KSDF   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   10/12/2011  1200 UTC                     
DT /OCT  12/OCT  13                /OCT  14                /OCT  15
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    57          68          52          68    47
TMP  72 72 67 63 61 60 58 63 66 65 62 60 57 56 54 60 65 66 60 54 49

Winter time is around the corner.  My winter forecast will have out in November. All I will have to say right now is we will have a weak to borderline moderate La'Nina  this winter. Last year was moderate. Alot of people are on board on a cold/snowy winter and I like what I see in the overall pattern and the analogs I studied over the last few months for us to see a bad winter season. Worst than the previous 2 winters.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Couple of severe storms over next 5 days

Very warm next 5 days with severe weather chances Friday am and again. Slight chances of storms over the weekend. Highs may reach upper 80's to near 90 Sunday. Very windy Sunday and Monday. Here is the threats for Friday and Monday day 5 on spc.

        Long term continues to indicate on chilly last week to 10days overall of April.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Wind advisory today; Slight risk of severe weather Monday & Heavy rain

Very windy  evening & night is in store. Low tonight will be near 70. Highs Monday 75. Severe weather looks to be here between 11:00- 5:00pm. Main threat will be damaging winds, hail, and some tornadoes. Winds will gust about 40mph. 2"is rainfall is possible. Tuesday will be mid 50's with sunny skies. Highs will return in the 70's the rest of the week and also storms will return in the forecast to end the week. Thunder over Louisville the 16th looking ahead right now. Highs in the 60's with a t-storms. We will update Thunder as we get closer. The last 10 days of April looks chilly than normal.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Summer forecast ideas & Long range ideas

Here is the Climate Forecast System model. It is a long range for the summer. It has us in a cooler than normal summer. I call it a mild summer across our area. It fits the idea that I been alluding to a couple of weeks ago. Summer forecast will be pretty early than normal as my confidence is rather high.  By the 20th or so of April another chilly pattern looks to be setting up. Will we see our last snow? I don't know but if we are done with snow what a nice ending to our snow season.

Severe weather threat & Flood threat Monday evening and Monday night

Happy April fool's Day. I didn't get chance to update this week. Took a time away but I'm here to give you an update on our severe weather threat for Monday and boy it looks impressive. Wind field ae impressive, temperatures are going to surge, and low will be strong. Main threat for Monday will tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding. It looks to be during our  NCAA BASKTBALL championship game.  The weekend look good weatherwise. Highs Saturday reaching 60. Sunday in the 70's. It will be windy Sunday. May see few showers early Sunday am.. Here is the latest SPC for Monday threatening weather and hpc precipitation amounts thru Wed am. It has 2-3" across the area.
For Louisville in March
HIGH: 82   there were 2 days in the 80s and 5 days in the 70s
LOW:  31   there were 4 days at 32 degrees or colder
RAIN: 5.17: which was 117% of normal
SNOW: 0.3" which was 14% of normal

Sunday, March 27, 2011

More snow to start the week

Snow set tonight looks Louisville and point south. These areas looks to see a 1" or less. Lows will be 30 tonight. Highs will be cold this week. More chances wintry weather throughout the week. Tuesday late thru Wednesday AM and April Fool's Day. We have to watch each storm during the week.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Couple of inches or so of snow tonight; More snow possible Sunday overnight- Monday early am

Heavy snows will be Louisville and points north.  Louisville may see 2-3". More than 3'' is possible in some parts of the metro and north. Some 4" or more within 30 or miles of here are possible. This will be out of here before dawn Sunday am. Highs will be near 40 Sunday. We have to track are next snow showing up more on the models Sunday overnight- Monday am. More on that after church after looking over the data. After that winter still will be hangin on. More snow opportunities continues.

Tough forecast tonight

Gfs has us seeing 3-4'' in Louisville and 4"  or more just north of Louisville. It has the heaviest snows just north of here. Nam has in E-town seeing heaviest 4" or more. Hpc also put us under a slight risk of 4" of snow tonight. Here is the Nws Service forecast. I has is seeing 1-2" of snow. I'm still saying around 2". We have to watch to see where exactly the heaviest snow bands form and when it start snowing. That will be the key tonight. More later.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Snow Saurday overnight ending Sunday am 7am

Looking now at 0Z gfs is is colder as well. First call for snowfall 2" or so Louisville metro. 3" or more near Louisville.

Things to watch for Saturday night- Sunday early am
1. Snow transition from rain/sleet.Will we see snow right before midnight instead of after midnight
2. Winds increasing  from NE.
3. Where will the heavy snows bands set up Louisville or outside of Louisville?
4 Temperatures expected to fall to 30 Sunday am. Snow will be diminish by 6-7am.
5. Few slicks spots but no major trouble.

0Z Nam is shifting south; Snow along and just north of 1-64

Latest models is trending little colder and further south. It has couple of inches of heavy, wet, snow here.

Snowfall from nam Saturday overnight- Sunday am

Nam has 2-3'' snow in Louisville. 3'' or more inches of snow north of here. Look at the nam

Along 1-70 between St.Louis and Indy to 1-64 will see accumulating snows Saturday night thru Sunday am?

Snow accumulations Saturday overnight - Sunday am. Highs Saturday will be low 40's. Falling into the 30's in the evening as it start as rain changing to sleet then to snow after midnight. Winds will pick as well out of the east. Snow accumulating genreally 1-3" across the area. Some may see 4" or more that will be north of us. Low will be 30 Sunday am. So slick spots on your way to church services Sunday am. More updates as time goes on.

Rain later today then snow early Sunday am

Highs will not warm that much. Cloudy and cold day again.Rain will move in from west to east. Most of Saturday will dry. Saturday night will see rain change to snow aslow moves east of us and colder air rushes in. Highs will stay in the 30's Sunday. Look at the models for April fool's Day next Friday April 1st and nam model for Sunday am. It showing opportunities snow. April fools is bringing a bigger storm. We have to continue to watch these feature. There looks to be more snow opprtunities after these features April 5th-10th time frame.