2010-2011 Annual winter forecast

                                2010- 2011 winter forecast isssued November 6, 2010

All you been waiting on. It's our annual winter forecast. This winter willl be normal to slightly below normal overall and snowfall is expected to be above again. Worst of the winter will be Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Midwest. Here is the breakdown on my reasoning behind my support and my forecast temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall total.
         La'Nina will influence our weather this winter. I'm expecting a moderate La'Nina or moderate increasing to strong La'Nina. Either won't matter too much really as far impacts of our weathrer in the Ohio Valley.
              My analogs that comparing this year as follows 2007-2008(Moderate increrasing to strong La'Nina). October saw high temps in 90's just like this year, 2007 summer record hot, fall was record warm, hurricane landfill was similar. November was slightly above normal. The winter 2007-08 was around 20" of snow.
1998-1999( Moderate La'Nina) Halloween was 67, this year the same, September and October dry similar to this one, Summer was wet just like for the most part this summer. 1998-99 saw 20" of snow but it was very warm in November and it was a warm winter.
1970- 1971( Moderate La'Nina) This year was followed by a very cold and snowy winter (1969-1970)( El' Nino). Halloween was 67 degrees just like this year, Fall was warm, 10 or hurricane just like this year. Summer was wet, November was colder than normal the only colder than normal I can find in a moderate or moderate increasing to strong La'Nina. It snowed couple of times both were a dusting or so of .1", .2" of snow. The following winter month had only one month above normal that was December the rest was colder than normal. Total snowfall 20".
Other analogs I looked at 1959. This was a neutrala neutral winter. It saw 34" of snow. It saw 90's twice in October just like this year and drought conditions was around. The following November was colder than normal, it had one month that was warm and that was January, Feburary and March turn around. March 1960 was snowiest and coldestr ever here.
It been two others moderate or moderate increasing to strong La' Nina I can find were it was less snow. 1975-1976, 1999-2000. Both had 3.3", and 12.3". So you can see it really doesn't matter too much whether we see a straight modewate or moderate increasing to strong.
                                                     
                                                        December 2010
    Temperatures -2.0 below normal, precipitation above normal, drought will improved, snowy than normal month. Moderate snowfall event, white xmas is chances are high.
                                                         January 2011
Temperatures -3.0 below normal, precipitation above normal, drought  expected to be gone completely, snowy than normal month, Biggest snowfall of the winter, below zero lows.
                                                          Feburary 2011
 A relaxation in the pattern. A milder than normal pattern. Temperatures +2.0 above normal. Less snows. Above normal precip
                                                        March 2011                                                  
Return to cold again. We have to keep an eye on this month. Snowy than normal month. A moderate snowfall event.

Total snowfall 30" of snow. Temperatures -1.0 below normal overall. Not as cold as last year but quite a bit of big storms and lots of extremes in temperatures.