Winter forecast 2011-2012

My winter forecast expected to be a colder version of this map. -3.0 below normal across our area. Add  LIGHT BLUE  instead of light green down Tennessee and close or at normal across northeast  This is based on a weak La'nina forecast on the models. Closest analog match 1950-1951 &1984-1985  fall and winter. Both of the fall season had two months above normal precipitation. Both are second time La' Nina. This is the only weak La'Nina years that I can find since 1900 with being wet similar to this year. 1950 was the only year with a wet Sept and Nov similar to 2011. La'Nina falls are usually dry over Ohio Valley.  Look at different models forecast of the sea surface temperature. -sign means La'Nina. The colder the temperature the stronger the La'Nina.  Few of them has La'Nina being strong and some neutral ( close to 0 + or - but that not expected to happen. We are currently at a .-9 has I write. More of them has us in a weaker La'Nina which I expected. Weaker than last year.

Table 1. Forecast SST Anomalies (deg C) in the Nino 3.4 Region

	Seasons (2011-2012)
Model	NDJ	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS
Dynamical models
NASA GMAO model	-1.7	-1.9	-2	-1.8	-1.6	-1.3	-1.1
NCEP Coupled Fcst Sys model	-1.1	-1.2	-1.1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8
Japan Met. Agency model	-0.6	-0.5	-0.3	-0.1	0.1
Scripps Inst. HCM	-0.8	-1	-1.1	-1	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.3	-0.1
Lamont-Doherty model	-0.7	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.9
POAMA (Austr) model	-0.7	-0.4	-0.2	0	0.2	0.4
ECMWF model	-1.1	-1	-0.8	-0.5
UKMO model	-1.5	-1.3	-1.1	-0.9
KMA (Korea) SNU model	-0.6	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2
ESSIC Intermed. Coupled model	-0.9	-0.7	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	-0	0.1	0.1	0.2
ECHAM/MOM	-1	-0.8	-0.5	-0.3	-0
COLA ANOM	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	-0.5	-0.6
MÉTÉO FRANCE model	-0.7	-0.5	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2
COLA CCSM3 model	-0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.6
NCEP CFS version 2	-1.5	-1.7	-1.6	-1.3	-0.9	-0.7	-0.3
CSIR-IRI 3-model MME	-1.3	-1.4	-1.4	-1.1	-0.9
GFDL CM2.1 Coupled Climate model	-1.2	-1.1	-0.8	-0.4	-0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.8
Average, dynamical models	-0.9	-0.9	-0.7	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1
Statistical models
NCEP/CPC Markov model	-1.1	-0.9	-0.7	-0.6	-0.4	-0.2	-0	0.1	0.2
NOAA/CDC Linear Inverse	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3
NCEP/CPC Constructed Analog	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
NCEP/CPC Can Cor Anal	-0.8	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.3	-0.1	0	0.1
Landsea/Knaff CLIPER	-0.7	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	-0.1	0	0	0
Univ. BC Neural Network	-1	-1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.3	-0.1	0
FSU Regression	-1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.6	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3
TDC - UCLA	-1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.3	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
Average, statistical models	-0.8	-0.8	-0.7	-0.6	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1
Average, all models	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.6	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	0	0.1

 

Low sunspot activity will play role our winter forecast. It played a role in 2009-2010 winter with Washington D.C record snowfall, Louisville ice storm in 2008-2009, and Chicago blizzard in Feburary 2011 and will play a role this year too. In the past it played a role in the 70's with the blizzard of 1978 here. Look at the lower sunspot number and think back to it's influence on our storms in the US

 Fresh snow across Alaska and north edge of North America will serve us well through the winter months.

These are my supported facts of a colder and stormier than normal season for third year in a row. This year expected to colder than last year. Blockbluster storm or storms (double digits or more) is expected to affect us compared to the last two years. Storm track will dominate the Lakes and Ohio Valley as 1950-1951 did that year. 1950 had 34" of snow of the season.

December transition to cold
Coldest winter expected to be January and Feburary 2012
Snowfall amounts 35-40" 1st 30+ more since 1977-78 finally! Top 3 snowiest winter in Louisville history