Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Record warmth is possible today?

Highs today 66 or so degrees. Windy afternoon. Showers developing later evening or overnight. Am showers Wednesday. Highs in the 60 or better. Thursday and Friday dry. Highs in the 50's. The weekend is question mark as far as the weather. Right now initally we will see some rain at some point. We will have a cutoff low pressure storm system which is a headache to predict. There is model madness. No confidence whatsoever for the weekend weather. No snowstorm that the models are showing though but we will see snowflakes? Well time will tell. Long range the question is when will our pattern change back to winter. The longer it takes the colder the spring will be. Right now I stilll believe someime Feburary through April is the time period but it may be delay until March thru early May.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Are the models giving some hope for winter lovers next weekend?????

Looking through the models today. It's brring a storm for next weekend. Gfs doesn't see as it is in it's usual 5-7 day error. The physics of the models. Non US models named canadian and Euro has a storm next weekend but solutions are diffrent. Canadian are showing a big storm in the lower Midwest- MO but at the end brings sn. Euro is further south in the Ohio Valley. Look the Euro. It suggests rain changing to snow Saturday lasting thru Sunday.
We have to see as the week wears on how this unfolds. This is certainly possible. We will be in Feburary now. There are signs of a pattern change as well.

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Light rain this morning. PM windy. Winds continues Sunday. Highs in the 40's this weekend

Afternoon sunshine this afternoon and windy condition. Tomorrow snow showers stay north. Windy Monday and Tuesday and mild with highs in the 50's and 60's Tuesday. A chance of rain/t-storms Tuesday night- Wednesday. Late next week we may start seeing some colder moving in. We shall see.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Rain/snow mix by daybreak Saturday am

Rain/snow mix  is what most the models shows by Saturday daybreak. Rain will minimize accumulation. If we see all snow. Light accumulations. We will track this as we get closer to the event. A changeable forecast. Sunday models keeping light snow north of here. We will watch the trends.

Flood watch this afternoon then snow opprtunities for the weekend

Highs today will be warmer than 40's. Highs approaching around 50 but just to our south 60's will be rule. The warm front just over top of us and low pressure will be to. Another soaker today.Watch standing high water and pounding on the roadways. Turning colder overnight-Friday early am with a chance of flurries/drizzles. Friday highs 43. Clouds to start. We should should breaks in the clouds. More clouds Friday night followed by snow by daybreak Saturday am as front passes through. Light accumulation is possible but temperatures is expected to be above freezing mark. It will be a squall line of snow behind the front. It will be early in the day. It will be very windy Saturday. Highs in the 30's.Winds will continue thru the weekend. Another clipper system dives in comes by Sunday midday and bring more snow. Light accumulation with that one also. Highs in the mid 30's Sunday. Look at the sim radar nam for both Sat and Sun snow.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Rain moves in as early as midday otherwise main rains will move in overnight into Thursday

Lots of rain. Rainfall amounts 1-2" of rain. This will end Thursday night. No thunderstorms in the forecast now which is a change from last post. The warm front will stay south. Today highs will be near 40 and tomorrow low 40's. This could ends as light snow Thursday overnight. Some models are showing this and not rulling this out. Timing is different. Ukmet and Canadian light snow overnight Thursday night -early Friday am. GFS and nogaps has it east. We will see. A break Friday. Looking into the weekend. Models are struggling with this but a chance of light snow Saturday morning sometime and again Sunday. Gfs doesn't see all of this. Canadian and rest of the models does. I believe we will see snow this weekend but I don't know detail yet.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Pattern favors the return to winter late week

Good morning folks!Wild weather later this week. Here is the latest canadian models for Friday and Saturday snow systems we have to watch. Euro looks similar. Gfs has nothing for Friday. It's trying to sniff out snow late Saturday.

Today highs in the upper 40's and Wednesday slightly cooler at 45. We have a chance of more t-storms Thursday. Some could be strong. Something to watch. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50's. Rain will be developing Wednesday evening. Warm front will be through during the day Thursday. Turning the colder by Friday am. Rain may end as snow.Look above again.

Wind advisory this afternoon

Gusty winds up tp 40mph is forecast this afternoon. Hold your hats. Temperatures will fall into the 40's. Next chance of rain comes Wednesday late into Thursday.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Moderate of severe weather for Western KY/TN. It may be shift further east with time

Temperatures will continue to rise thru the 50's to 60 by Monday am. Winds will increase after midnight. The best chances of severe weather after midnight will develop in  west TN/KY where the best chances of tornadoes, wind damage, large hail. then it will move to Louisville before daybreak. Have your weather radio on tonight. Tornadoes of  F1and F2 tonight across the moderate risk area top below is tornado risk and top below wind damage which could be excess of 70-80 mph.

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Saturday, January 21, 2012

Severe weather on the increase Sunday overnight into Monday am could upgrade to a moderate risk

High in the upper 50's  Sunday. Very windy tomorrow night and Monday am. Severe storms expected to produce wind damage and tornadoes. Winds could gust up 40 -50mph across the area. Impressive upper winds and cape values tomorrow from sref model. Low presure will track to Iowa with sub 990mb low.  The low pressure trough will take on more of a negative tilt which means it will intensify Sunday night and overnight. Turning cold Monday afternoon. Take a look at the  severe weather outlook and cape values for Sunday night. 30% of severe weather but I believe will update to moderate risk in the morning or afternoon.


Friday, January 20, 2012

We could miss this ice which I won't be disapointed

If we don't get down to 32 early am we will miss this event but rain is expected for most of the night. Will get get down to 32 by 6am or 7am. Lots of icy reports further north. Moisture is increasing looking at the radar.

Adjustment on temps saturday am

Low Saturday am is now expected to drop to 32. Any prepitation is expected not to be rain during that time.  The area of most concern will be further in the Seymor, IN thru Cincy. No major problems in Louisville but minor.

Winter weather advisory thru tonight

GFS put us bout.10" of ice along 1-64 and close to 1/4" of ice north of the river. Winter advisory is post for Louisville and points north. Precipitation is expected to developing by midnight and last by 6am or 7am. It should start as rain ending as wintry mix or freezing rain by 3am or 4am. I'm not sold as what precipitation type we see for sure but this is what forecasted gfs models is showing for ice accumulation.We may see more than what is shown. I forgot to mentioned winds will increase overnight and severe weather could be a problem as well. A lot is in store for tonight across the state.

Mid 30's this evening fall to 30 Saturday am

Rain developing this late this evening especially to the overnight hours. Strong to severe storms further south in downstate KY. Temperatures in the 50's. Wintry mix of sleet/frz rain/ snow north of the river. Freezing line will drop here by Saturday daybreak changing rain to wintry mix of sleet/snow/frz rain. Winter weather adivisory north of here but could include us. Highs Saturday upper 30's. We have the latest update later. Be safe out there. God bless.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Wintry weather to severe weather again?

Today highs near 40 degrees after a cold start start. Lows Saturday am just under 32 degrees precipitation is expected to come to an end. All snow just to our north. Light amounts are expected though. We will watch to see what type of precipitation we see overnight for sure. A tricky forecast is store so we will kept you updated. Highs Saturday expected to stay in the 30's. Near 60 with windy conditions Sunday and Sunday night. More severe weather is possible overnight Sunday into Monday am. Temperatures in the 60's Sunday night- Monday am time period. Turning colder Monday afternoon. No real cold air is expected next week.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Snow showers looks to stay north and east of us Thursday; Watch Friday night- Sat am system closely

7 tornodoes confirmed offically around Louisville. Highs Thursday is expected to be in the low 40's and the same as Friday. Snow showers to our north is expected fall late afternoon and early evening time period. Friday a stalled out front will be responsible for a huge temperature gradient from north to south. Temperatures south of the front will be in the 50's and step colder the further north you live. A low pressure will ride along the front Friday overnight Saturday am. Gfs is colder and furher south below. Other models are warmer and further north. We have to watch system over next few days. Another cold front Sunday night looks to bring rain. Sunday around 50. Highs in the 40's Monday and colder.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

4 tornadoes confirmed in January. Colder today. A chance of snow showers Thursday evening

Severe weather came to us yesterday. There wasn't any watches that came with it. Lots of wind and some tornadoes  A wild week so far and more to come. Temperatues Wednesday will not be as cold as I previosly projected early in the week. Highs in the upper 30's. Good amount of sunshine and less winds. Thursday highs around 40 but there is disagreement b/t gfs vs rest of the models. Gfs is bring snow showers as far south as the same areas around that saw snow Satutday evening and other keeping all or most here north. We have to wait and see how far south this make it. If we get in on the action 1"< is expected. All rain is expected with the Friday night- Saturday system at this point. All models are in agreement. Next week doesn't looks as warm. No 60's but 50's even 40's the first half of the week. Rain chances increasing early next week Sunday night- Monday time frame.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Looking ahead this week

Heavy rain/t-storms overnight-Tuesday am and another round with the front itself then turning cold in the afternoon. Few flakes flying during the evening. Highs 30 Wednesday. Another arctic front huge temperatires gradient from north to south. Between that across the our area. I'm expecting a swath of snow developing sometime Thursday afternoon. This will have to be monitor closely in the upcoming days.  Storm #3 Latest gfs now is keeping the cold air to bring wintry mix of precipitation Friday evening- Saturday am. We have to trackthat also. I talked about rain/snow situation yesterday developing for Friday late and this morning update it looked more like rain from the models but look at the latest gfs models now. Euro as some support also.

Roller coaster ride this week

Temperatures today will be warmer than previously forecast today. Highs today in the mid 50's. Windy afternoon with winds gusting over 30mph. Better chance of rain overnight into Tuesday am. Winds gusty up to 40 mph Tuesday with a chance of rain/t-storms. Few could be strong. Highs is expected to get in the low 60's before much colder air moves in late in the afternoon. Temperatures will drop in the upper 30's. by early evening A few flakes possible during the evening. Wednesday near 30. Our next Arctic front from NW on Thursday is expected to have a swath of snow with a temperatures gradient from north to south. We have to watch this as the we get closer. Late week system by Saturday looks more like rain at this time.The weekend is expected to get back into the 60's.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

More clouds and rain starting later Monday lasting thru Tuesday midday change to some flakes Tuesday evening

Snowfall amounts Saturday evening range from 1-4" Heaviest fall just south of Louisville. Like I said this was a very complex forecast. Louisville saw close to to an inch. Melting will continue tomorrow with highs in the 40's. Breezy afternoon. Showers will develop late and rain will increase in coverage as we head into Monday overnight into Tuesday am. Rain is expected until midday Tuesday. Temperatures in the upper 50's then colder air will pour in by Tuesday evening. Some snow flakes is expected to be around. Much colder air Wednesday with highs in the upper 20's. Coldest  day of the week then another cold front is expected to invade the us by Thursday night.This is showing some moisture with it A chance of snow. Most models are showing this. Another system models are showing passing thru Friday late with chance of rain/snow otherwise another warm up later next weekend into early the following week could bring us in the 50's and 60's again. Here is the system Thursay late that one of the models are showing. Here Canadian model

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Snow trying to move in this evening. Will it or not?

Snow is trying to overcome the dry air in place but i'm expecting to squeeze out a dusting to worst case scenrio a  1". Dry air is needed to accounted for.

Winter weather advisory late afternoon

Highs upper 20's. Early sun will help us to gives us some enchancement later. Snow developing later afternoon. Snow accumulations 1-2"just north of the track. The low will track 75 miles south of the Louisville. A sweet spot for heaviest snow around here. Louisville and points eastward.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Not lot of moisture with this snow event

Up to 1" or so looks to be heaviest snows. Louisville and points south/east through the state is in the running later this afternoon and evening. This will be compact storm. These type of quick moving system are very challanging to forecast.

More snow showers this afternoon but brief; Snow developing Saturday late afternoon and evening

Another round of snow developing Saturday late afternoon and evening. Though a light snowfall event heaviest snow accumuations may fall either Louisville, KY to just south of here. Average snow accumlations up to 1". Temperatures is expected not to warm that much but not above freezing mark so snow will stick quickly. Snow will fall from Southern IN, West Central KY to NE TN. Look at the latest models this afternoon. This is a complex clipper. Time frame Saturday late afternoon-Sunday early am will move east.

Another accumulating snow tomorrow afternoon and evening

Today highs today in the mid 20's. Snow shower and/or flurries Low tonight upper teens. Highs tomorrow 30. Snow is expected to develop late afternoon and evening. It will be hard to pinpoint exactly the timing.Snowall amounts looks to be 1" on average but could see as much as 2". More update amounts later today. Still studying this and looking at more data. Here is the latest data showing. It has the southern track which put us in a sweet spot to see the heaviest snow amounts even though this will not be a big snow event. Remember 75-100miles south needed for a sweet spot. Ukmet model #1 show it in Bowling Green.


Thursday, January 12, 2012

More snow this evening and overnight; Snow showers&flurries Friday AM

Another round of snow is expected to move in later this evening and overnight which bring us 1" or so of accumulations. 2" is expected of some but not for everyone thru Friday am. Be careful tonight and Friday am. Latest models Saturday evening and overnight brings more snow. Additional accumulation are expected. Most models has a favorable track.More tomorrow on that.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Winter weather advisory across much of the state Thursday afternoon -Friday am

Timing of snow is expected to be in the early afternoon. Snow will heavy at times. This will not be a big snow event but our first widespread snow event of the the season. Widespread 1-3" snows across the state with more areas now 2-3" of snowthan last update after looking at more data and gather my thoughts. Louisville is expected to see about 2" but has a chance to see higher end of total if we see heaviest snows.

We have a shot seeing 2-3" of snow but 1" on average across the state thru Friday

Latest nam has some areas getting 2-3" of snow but on average 1" across the state. I can't load up the maps.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Heavy rain Wednesday then pm scattered showers; Snow Thursday heavy at times

Highs Wednesday mid to upper 50's.1" to 1.50" of rainfall thru Thursday am. Heaviest rain will fall Wednesday am. It will taper to scattered showers or drizzle. Near 50 Thursday AM with some drizzle. Snow is expected to fall behind the front after 12 pm. A band of snow heavy snow will accumulate quickly. By evening commute Thursday temperatures upper 20's. Winds will gusty to 40mph. Blowing snow and low visiblity. Roads will be slick. Look at 700mb for Thursday. NAM has great vorticity, great lifting, strong winds, high relatively humdity. Also 500 thickness will drop rapidly which will aid in increase snowfall totals. Average snowfall expected to be 1" across the region but there will opportunity of seeing more thru Friday. Flurries and snow showers continue thru Friday. All models now see clipper system Saturday night/Sunday time period. More on that later.

Active pattern looks to shape up

Couple of more mild days ahead of us. Temperatures today and Wednesday in the mid 50's. Enjoy it because an arctic cold will crash the party comes late Thursday and behind it will bring a burst of snow. Im expecting some problems to our evening commute Thursday. Temperatures during that time is expected to be near the freezing mark after a morning high in the near 50. Winds will really pick up gusting up to 40mph. Snow acumuations is expected to reach up to 1". Few flurries around with lingering clouds Friday. Highs in the 20's. We will stay there Saturday am and we are planning on tracking our next clipper system which most models is showing. Euro is one of them for late Satuday. If it tracks  to our south about 75- 100mph then the heaviest snowfall will be here. If over top then heaviest snow will further north. I've been forecasting the weather here 8 yrs I have never seen a favorable track for heaviest snow with a clipper system. So we see. After the weekend a quick mild up the start of the new week another storm could develop by Tuesday of next week bringing us rain and as we turn colder changing rain to snow. All models are showing this.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Snow opportunities later this week as winter makes a return

Good morning. Highs for next couple days will be in the 50's. Rain will move in Tuesday overnight into Wednesday with a low from our southwest. Our next arctic front will invade the Ohio Valley as colder moves Thursday. Snow showers will be likely Thursday. Snow accumulations are likely as well. Snow showers & flurries continues Friday am. All of this will be on the based of  an upper low in the Ohio Valley and lower Lakes. Friday will be the coldest of the season. Highs will stay in the 20's. A clipper system over the weekend may bring more snow showers to the area. Weather is starting to change. Our snow is coming soon. Hang in there snow lovers. Here is nogaps indicating for Thursday evening, Friday am, and Saturday snow.


Friday, January 6, 2012

Southern storm could phased with northern storm( Arctic front) Thursday next week

This is how this storm could phased. If the southern storm slowed down which allows the northern storm(Arctic front) to merged togther. This is certainly is possible. Models have a difficult time this winter with these cutoff lows in the SW. Nogaps model Thursday am is showing what I'm talking about. Note this is not my forecast as quite bit of options are on the table. It's 5-6 days out. In order of this storm to become a snowstorm we need #1 cold air and #2  low pressure to track west of the Applachians mountains or near.

Be patient snow lovers; Indication of a change later January

Today highs will be 65 or so. I didn't believe we see 60's but if we were in a colder pattern we wouldn't see it. Winds will be 10-20mph. Cooler Saturday highs in the low 50's more clouds and 40's. for Sunday and Monday Tuesday and Wednesday highs warming into the 50's. Best chances of rain moves by Wednesday. Cold late next week. Uncertain as far weather condition. We will continue to look study this over the weekend and next week. 
 Arctic oscallation(AO) has been postive( black lines) all season long. It's has dominated our mild weather and lack of snowfall but next few weeks but it trending to go negative for the 1st time this season. This is will gives a colder and snowy pattern starting late month

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Where do we go from?

Good morning. Today will be the coldest in the next 7 days. Highs will stay in the 20's. Upper 20's to near 30. Further west will be in the low 30's. Tonight temperatures will rising into the 30's by morning and continue to rise into the 40's. Winds will increase Wednesday out of ahead of clipper system which will stay east of us. Thursday will be breezy High 50 and Friday windy as temperatures surge I believe to 60. Saturday an approaching cold front may bring rain pm Saturday. This is the part of the forecast is tricky and Canadian overnight Saturday thru Sunday am is changing rain to light snow. This is not a forecast but what it suggest. We will see if this is actually is going to happen. Euro is faster and warmer but has a storm. GFS suppresses as usual.

Monday, January 2, 2012

Snowfall amounts Monday

A coating or so of snow 1-65 down as far as south as Tennessee and could be further little west into Western KY. Further north and east 1-3 snowfall range into I-75. Temperatures will fall in the mid 20s  this evening. Windchill in the low teens. Winds gusty up to 35mph. If we clear out later tonight temperatures could drop in the low teens otherwise upper teens. Tuesday highs in the mid 20's then warming up the late week back in the 50's.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

How far west will see snow showers Monday?

 Happy 2012. Lots of strong winds as expected today. Tonight will be warmer than forecast. Lows low to mid 30's. Colder suge will be hold back  Monday If we get caught underneath these snow showers expect to see a coating of the white powery snow. Air will be plenty cold Arctic air. Temperatures looks to ocurr early in the day Monday. Winds will be strong yet again. Snow will developing from near lunchtime thru the afternoon hours time frame across the region. Further east will see to seeing 1-3" of snow along 1-75 in Ohio down to Knoxville,TN. 1-65 down to Nashville has a chance to see coating of snow but further west of the state to near Paducah is not out of the woods. Stay tuned tomorrow morning for the latest update.