1st half of November will be mild and second half colder, wet, snow accumulations

Here is a look at thursday AM from european models. Low pressure in missori. This will bring rain here throughout the day Thursday. Highs near 60. This will be coolest day this week. Before that highs will warm in the upper 60's to low 70's.

This weekend look nice at this point. Mild pattern should dominate the 1st part of the month. Winter forecast is still being fine tune. I having decided yet when I will finalize it.

Analogs suggesting that November expecting to be colder,snowier, and wetter than normal

Facts why November should be cold, snowier, and wetter than nornal.

1) 1954 was a weak La'Nina year early fall saw 100+ degree weather in September just like this year. November saw record cold high low 32 in early November.

September 1950 was a weak La'Nina. It was cool/wet just like this year. The following November saw a we above  normal snow, above normal rain, and way below nornal cold.

1975 and 1950 was one of top ten wettest years on record. 2011 will be in the top 10. Could be number 1. Both had snowfall in November.

Most weak La'Nina are cold looking at most of the weak LaNina November's. 1950,1954, 1995, 2000.
Only 1974 is the only one.

We are right now at a -0.7. So I'm expecting a weak La'Nina November.

So I'm expecting a cold, snowier, and wetter than normal November. My winter forecast will be out sometime in November.

Models disagreement mid to late week; Below normal weekend with freeze more likely

Last 80 day Tuesday then complex forecast mid to late with sw flow over our area. These pattern our complex. It will bring temperature crash and heavy rains. Wednesday highs ranging between 65-75 depend how much clouds and rain will see. Gfs has rain most of the day. Canadian and European suggest no.

Here is the latest Canadian Thursday am. Heavy rain with temperatures contrast to the north. Colder will ooze southward. Highs in the 50's to near 60.

Friday and weekend below normal temperatues will rule for the weekend. Snow showers are possible mainly north according to the Canadian models. Not a forecast.  A freeze is looking more likely if we clear out.

Tumbling temperatures mid week and gusty winds

Here is a qpf from nam and gfs through Wednesday evening. Heaviest rains in the SE US from tropical moisture which could be a named storm and mainly north of us.We will keep an eye on this over next 24- 48 hours. Another soaking rains here.

Tumbling temperatures, clouds, showers, and gusty winds will rule our forecast  mid week to late. Look at our 500 mb vort ht for Wednesday. Huge trough. Wow! It will drop are highs in the 40's for couple days. Late week expect widespread heavy frost and freezing overnight lows across the state.

Here is snow day winter forecast map I want to show you. This is not there final one but there 2nd update. It's still saying a snowy winter across our part of the country. Also an enchanced area of snow on top of that. An excellent discussion I read on their forecast. I like their forecast.

Streak of dry weather will end and cooling temperatures over next few days

Hello folks. It's been a long time since I update. I some time away. I'm glad to start slowly working my away in the give you updates of the weather. Here below is latest 12Z gfs temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Highs in the upper 60's. I believe we will go below those projected computer generated numbers. I think highs will be low to mid 60's. Rain cool air Thursday should holds down below these numbers. Rain will tapering off later Thursday.  Rain amounts will  be tricky. Models ( gfs and nam) suggesting .25-.50 on average. If we see heavier bands I can see .50- 1.00" of rain. Windy Friday. Temperatures warming back up to 80 Sunday and Monday.

LOUISVILLE     
KSDF   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   10/12/2011  1200 UTC                     
DT /OCT  12/OCT  13                /OCT  14                /OCT  15
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    57          68          52          68    47
TMP  72 72 67 63 61 60 58 63 66 65 62 60 57 56 54 60 65 66 60 54 49

Winter time is around the corner.  My winter forecast will have out in November. All I will have to say right now is we will have a weak to borderline moderate La'Nina  this winter. Last year was moderate. Alot of people are on board on a cold/snowy winter and I like what I see in the overall pattern and the analogs I studied over the last few months for us to see a bad winter season. Worst than the previous 2 winters.